华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报：静待新政窗口期-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial Silicon: The supply of industrial silicon has decreased slightly, but due to weak downstream demand, market activity is limited. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon still has room to decline. Suggest considering shorting opportunities for si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Although some production enterprises have reduced supply, inventory consumption is limited, and the effect of supply - demand adjustment has not yet appeared. Future price trends still depend on the improvement of supply - demand balance and industry policy orientation. Suggest considering long opportunities for PS2605, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - A rumored meeting minutes show that on January 6, the State Administration for Market Regulation约谈ed relevant units in the photovoltaic industry, mainly involving issues such as monopoly risks and rectification requirements. It is speculated that the limit - down of the polysilicon futures was affected by this [8]. - On December 26, 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation carried out compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui, pointing out the "involution - style" competition problems in the industry [8]. - On December 24, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the addition of several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses [8]. - On December 23, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients in polysilicon futures contracts [8]. 3.1.2 Industrial Silicon Weekly View - Market Review: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the industrial silicon spot price remained stable, with the benchmark spot price at 8,802 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, and the latest transaction price was 8,820 yuan/ton, and the current position was about 231,400 lots [11]. - Supply: In the southwest region, only a few manufacturers are operating, with low production. In Xinjiang, production is stable; in Inner Mongolia, some manufacturers have reduced production; in Shaanxi, some manufacturers have resumed production [11]. - Demand: In January, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and the industry's operating rate decreased. The silicone industry was affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the aluminum rod output decreased, with general demand for industrial silicon [11]. - Cost, Profit, and Inventory: The production cost of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, mainly due to the decline in silicon coal prices. Profits increased slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level [11]. - Outlook and Strategy: It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will still decline. Suggest shorting si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy [11]. 3.1.3 Polysilicon Weekly View - Market Review: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the polysilicon spot price fluctuated downward, with the benchmark spot price at 50,505 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.14%, and the current position was about 46,200 lots [13]. - Supply: In January 2026, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and most enterprises were operating at reduced loads. It is expected that the domestic polysilicon output in January will be about 95,000 tons [13]. - Demand: Although the downstream demand schedule has increased compared with the initial forecast of the month, it is still declining month - on - month. The demand in the energy storage field is expected to be optimistic, but the power battery is in the off - season, and the procurement demand is restricted [13]. - Cost, Profit, and Inventory: This week, the cost increased, and the profit decreased significantly. The inventory showed a "high - level fluctuation" characteristic, and the overall inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - Outlook and Strategy: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Future price trends depend on supply - demand balance and policies. Suggest going long on PS2605 or implementing an arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc. The products are mainly used in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries, and are further applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and new energy [19]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon spot prices (including different grades and regions) and futures contract prices (including continuous contracts and active contracts) [23][33][41] 3.4 Inventory - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon inventory, including industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [52][56] 3.5 Cost and Profit - Profit and Cost: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon [63] - Main Production Area Electricity Prices: Charts of electricity prices in main industrial silicon production areas such as Yunnan Nujiang, Xinjiang, and Sichuan Liangshan are provided [68][70] - Silica Stone Prices: Charts of silica stone prices in regions such as Guangxi, Henan, and Shaanxi are provided [77][81] - Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal: Charts of prices of petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions are provided [84][90] 3.6 Supply - Output: Charts of industrial silicon weekly and monthly output are provided [96] - Operating Rate and Production Capacity: Charts of industrial silicon operating rate and monthly production capacity are provided, and information on new production capacity projects in various regions in 2025 - 2026 is listed, with a total new production capacity of 1.98 million tons [101][104] 3.7 Demand - Consumption Overview: Charts of industrial silicon consumption breakdown and structure are provided, and consumption data of different industries from 2024 - 2025 are listed [107][110] - Polysilicon: Charts of polysilicon monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit are provided [113][118] - Silicone: Charts of silicone market price, intermediate (DMC) monthly output, production cost, and production gross profit in the East China region are provided [123][129] - Aluminum Rod: Charts of aluminum rod weekly and monthly output, price, 6063 spot inventory, and original aluminum - based alloy production, operating rate are provided [134][138][140] - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: Charts of recycled aluminum alloy production, production capacity, operating rate, and inventory are provided [149][151] - Solar/PV: Charts of solar cell cumulative output and battery slice price are provided [156] 3.8 Import and Export - The report provides charts of industrial silicon and polysilicon import and export volumes [166][170]