沪锡或高位宽幅震荡走势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply side constraints remain, the demand in emerging fields is optimistic in the long - term, but the demand side is restricted by high prices in the short - term, and the inventory has increased significantly. The tin price may show a high - level wide - range oscillating trend. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the domestic supply - demand situation [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the Burmese mines is slow, and it is expected that the import volume in January will remain stable. The short - term domestic tin ore supply shortage continues, and the domestic tin ore processing fees remain low. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 10,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2] Supply - In December 2025, the domestic refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.79%. The raw material shortage pattern remains unsolved, and the release space of refined tin supply is limited. In Yunnan, the smelter operating rate remains at a high level of about 87%, and production is basically normal. In Jiangxi, affected by the shortage of scrap tin raw materials, the refined tin production is still low, and the operating rate of some enterprises is insufficient. It is expected that the production in January will remain unchanged month - on - month. In December, China's refined tin imports were 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin in December, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur increasing losses. In December, Indonesia's tin ingot exports were 5,002.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.93%, 1.87% higher than the average level in the past four years. The 2026 quota is about 60,000 tons, slightly higher than that in 2025, but policy control is strict, and the actual export rhythm is affected by the approval process [3] Consumption - High prices suppress downstream demand. Except for rigid demand, the willingness for active inventory replenishment has dropped to zero. Since late January, some solder and electronic manufacturing enterprises have entered the holiday mode, and the downstream's ability to accept orders has declined significantly. Usually, there is inventory replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, but this year, affected by high prices, the inventory replenishment volume is significantly lower than in previous years [3][5] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of January 26, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 171 tons to 9,720 tons. As of January 23, the total social inventory of SMM ingots in three places was 10,678 tons, an increase of 542 tons from last week's inventory data. The average spot price of tin in the Yangtze River was 423,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9,100 yuan, a rise of 2.19%. The basis of the Yangtze River spot for the tin main contract fluctuated between premium and discount. Last Friday, the basis was a premium of 4,130 yuan, with large basis fluctuations [4] LME Spot and Inventory - As of January 26, the LME tin weekly inventory continued to increase by 1,260 tons to 7,195 tons, at a relatively high level in the past five years. The LME tin spot discount widened, and the discount was $245 last weekend [4]