国贸期货黑色金属周报-20260126

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of narrow - range operation, with each sub - sector showing different trends. The steel market continues to be volatile, with limited upside and downside drivers; the coking coal and coke market is in an oscillating and weak state, and the iron ore market is in a short - term oscillating and strong pattern but faces long - term pressure from inventory [5][66][116] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Supply: Iron and steel production shows a slight increase, with iron water production fluctuating within a narrow range and scrap steel daily consumption increasing slightly. It is expected that after January, iron water production will rise, and the electric furnace will gradually reduce production during the Spring Festival, balancing the total output of crude steel [5] - Demand: Building materials demand shows obvious seasonality, and the demand for plates is weak in both supply and demand. The spot market lacks fluidity, and the overall demand support for the market is limited [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of five major steel products has shifted from destocking to seasonal inventory accumulation, with slow inventory reduction for plates and high - inventory pressure for hot - rolled coils [5] - Basis/Spread: The basis of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, and the basis of rebar decreases slightly [5] - Profit: The profitability of steel mills is at a relatively low - to - medium level, and the actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit [5] - Valuation: The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage. The relative valuation is neutral [5] - Macro and Risk Preference: Commodity fluctuations increase, and there are structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to capital flow and rotation [5] - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The black market is in a state of range - bound operation. It is advisable to use an oscillating mindset for single - side trading, and continue rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [5] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, consider range or short - term long strategies; for arbitrage, focus on widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar; for cash - and - carry, continue rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [6] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: The steel market enters the off - season, with overall weak industrial data. The demand for coking coal and coke weakens seasonally, and inventory accumulates. However, there is no excessive spot selling pressure, and the market mainly trades at a reasonable valuation [66] - Coking Coal Supply: Domestic coal mine production continues to increase but will peak before the Spring Festival. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, but market transactions are weak. The price of Australian coal continues to rise, and there is a continuous internal - external price inversion [66] - Coke Supply: Coke production remains stable, and the first round of price increases is temporarily postponed, with stable coking profits [66] - Inventory: Downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the market sentiment weakens after the first - round price increase of coke is postponed [66] - Basis/Spread: The first - round price increase of coke is temporarily postponed, and the cost of the first - round price increase for the 05 - contract wet - quenched/dry - quenched coke is 1729/1756. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts drops to around 1120 [66] - Profit: The profitability of steel mills increases slightly, while coking profits remain at a loss [66] - Summary: The coking coal and coke market is oscillating and weak. The first - round price increase of coke still has a chance to be implemented, but the upward driving force is insufficient. It is recommended to cash out spot stocks at high prices before the festival and wait for short - selling opportunities in the futures market after the price rises [66] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, cash out spot stocks at appropriate times and wait for short - selling opportunities in the futures market after the price rises; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [66] 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: The shipping volume rebounds, and the arrival volume in China also shows a mixed trend. Australian and non - mainstream ore arrivals increase, while Brazilian ore arrivals decrease [116] - Demand: Steel mill iron water production is basically stable, and it is expected to increase significantly in February. The daily port dredging volume decreases, and port inventory continues to be higher than the same period last year [116] - Inventory: The port inventory increases again, reaching a new high for the year, which is a long - term pressure factor for the iron ore market [116] - Profit: Steel mill profits are at a low level [116] - Valuation: The short - term valuation is relatively high [116] - Summary: In the short term, the iron ore market is in an oscillating and strong pattern due to factors such as inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival and expected production resumption in February. However, in the long term, port inventory pressure will be the main factor restricting the price [116] - Investment View: Neutral [116] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, consider short - term long positions and short positions at pressure levels for long - term trading; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [116]