生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20260126

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity sector is facing different market conditions. The sugar market has sufficient global supply, and the domestic sugar supply is also abundant. The pulp market has relatively stable prices, but the overall supply is not tight, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak. The double - offset paper market has cost - support weakening and faces demand pressure. In the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, the apple market has strong mid - line supply support but weak marginal drivers, and the jujube market is entering the consumption peak season with inventory starting to decline [3][5][7]. - Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety. For example, for sugar, consider short - selling on rebounds; for pulp, switch from one - sided short - allocation to range trading; for double - offset paper, reduce long positions on high prices and try short - allocation; for apples, adopt a long - thinking strategy; for jujubes, aggressive investors can hold reverse spreads or long positions with protective put options [4][5][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - For fresh fruit and vegetable futures, recommend holding long positions in Apple 2605 cautiously with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, recommend reducing short positions with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9300 - 9700 [16]. - For soft commodity futures, recommend temporarily observing Sugar 2605 with a support range of 5070 - 5100 and a pressure range of 5270 - 5300. For Pulp 2605, recommend range trading with a support range of 5200 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5600. For Double - offset Paper 2605, recommend trying short - selling on high prices with a support range of 4000 - 4050 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9535, down 6 points or 0.06% for the week; Jujube 2605 closed at 8800, down 75 points or 0.85% for the week; Sugar 2605 closed at 5180, down 78 points or 1.48% for the week; Pulp 2605 closed at 5398, up 36 points or 0.67% for the week; Double - offset Paper 2602 closed at 4226, up 178 points or 4.40% for the week [17]. 3.2.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 4.70 yuan per jin, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 0.45 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan per kilogram, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of sugar is 5280 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous period and down 630 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5400 yuan, with no change from the previous period and down 1150 yuan year - on - year [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The report provides basis data charts for apple, jujube, sugar, and pulp, including Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main - continuous basis, Sugar main - continuous basis, and Pulp main - continuous basis, but no specific data analysis is given [28][31][33][34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation The report provides inter - monthly spread charts for apple, jujube, and sugar, such as Apple 5 - 10 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, and Sugar 9 - 1 spread, but no specific data analysis is given [37][39][41]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no change from the previous period and no change year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 3298, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 706 year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 13745, a decrease of 11 from the previous period and a decrease of 10383 year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 139554, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 197742 year - on - year [42]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendations - For Apple 2605, recommend selling out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been partially realized and the price increase has slowed down. - For Jujube 2605, recommend selling deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market and the spot inventory is high. - For Sugar 2605, recommend considering selling both call and put options as there are differences in China's sugar production and the international market has oversupply [42]. 3.6.2 Apple Option Data The report provides charts of apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio of open interest and trading volume, historical volatility, etc., but no specific data analysis is given [44]. 3.6.3 Sugar Option Data The report provides charts of sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio of trading volume and open interest, historical volatility, implied volatility, etc., but no specific data analysis is given [45][46]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - Weather Conditions in Producing Areas: The report provides charts of minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, which are major apple - producing areas, but no specific data analysis is given [49][50]. - Export Situation: The report provides a chart of the monthly apple export volume, but no specific data analysis is given [53]. - Inventory Situation: The report provides charts of national apple inventory, weekly apple inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific data analysis is given [53][55]. 3.7.2 Jujube The report provides charts of weekly jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei, and daily arrival volume of jujubes at Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific data analysis is given [57]. 3.7.3 Sugar The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory (newly added), monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures difference, but no specific data analysis is given [59][60][62]. 3.7.4 Pulp The report provides charts of domestic 4 - port pulp inventory, global pulp producer inventory days, weekly production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific data analysis is given [64][65][74]. 3.7.5 Double - offset Paper The report provides charts of double - offset paper capacity utilization rate, weekly production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific data analysis is given [76][79].