周观：新的债市震荡区间形成（2026年第4期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (2026.1.19 - 2026.1.23), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 declined by 1.3bp from 1.843% last Friday to 1.83% this Friday. The bond market returned to a narrow - range oscillation. Considering the "stock - bond seesaw" and the configuration power at the beginning of the year, it is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will fluctuate within the range of 1.8% - 1.9% next week, and may approach the lower limit of the range, but lacks the power to break through [1][10][14]. - Overseas, gold has experienced a "perfect storm" this week with a weekly increase of over 8.4%. It is difficult to conclude that the gold price will reach an inflection point until the central bank's gold - buying wave subsides, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes, and the strong fiscal spending scenario reverses. The probability of reaching a stationary point depends on the "opportunity cost" in the medium - term [1][18]. - The US labor market is in a mild adjustment stage, with marginal pressure on employment. The inflation shows a mild cooling trend, and the Fed's short - term reason for cutting interest rates is further insufficient. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 2.8%, and it may suspend interest rate cuts [1][18][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1. One - Week Views 3.1.1. Domestic Bond Market - Weekly Review: From Monday to Friday, affected by economic data release, LPR announcement, central bank operations, and market sentiment, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 showed fluctuations, with a cumulative decline of 1.3bp [10][11]. - Weekly Thinking: The bond market oscillated narrowly. The "stock - bond seesaw" limited the decline of bond yields, while the configuration power at the beginning of the year drove the interest rate down. The 2025 economic data showed that GDP achieved the annual target, but the structural contradiction of "strong production, weak demand" still existed. The central bank's over - quantity renewal of MLF reduced the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will fluctuate within 1.8% - 1.9% next week [14][15]. 3.1.2. Overseas Market - Gold Market: Gold had a significant weekly increase. It is difficult to determine the inflection point of the gold price until certain conditions change. The probability of reaching a stationary point depends on the "opportunity cost" [18]. - US Economic Data and Fed Policy: The US labor market showed marginal pressure, inflation cooled mildly, and the Fed's short - term reason for cutting interest rates was insufficient. The probability of a rate cut in January was 2.8%, and the first rate cut was expected to be postponed to mid - 2026 [18][20]. 3.2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1. Liquidity Tracking - Open Market Operations: From January 19 to 23, 2026, the total net investment in the open market was 11,295 billion yuan, including reverse repurchase and MLF operations [30]. - Interest Rate Comparison: Comparisons of money market interest rates, interest rate corridors, and yields of various bonds were presented, showing the changes in interest rates [35][37][41]. 3.2.2. Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity Prices: Steel prices declined, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices generally increased. Prices of coal, vegetables, and crude oil also showed different trends [51]. 3.3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1. Primary Market Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale: A total of 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 231.57 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.41 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 203.16 billion yuan. The bonds were mainly issued by 5 provinces and cities, and 3 provinces issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts [64][68][71]. - Early Redemption: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 740 million yuan, involving 3 provinces [72]. 3.3.2. Secondary Market Overview - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: The stock of local government bonds was 55.02 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 36.6054 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.67%. The top three provinces with active trading were Zhejiang, Liaoning, and Guangdong, and the top three active terms were 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y [81]. - Yield Changes: The yields of local government bonds generally increased this week [83]. 3.3.3. Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The local government bond issuance plan was presented, but specific content was not detailed in the summary [88]. 3.4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1. Primary Market Issuance Overview - Total Issuance: A total of 374 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 331.369 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 187.874 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 143.494 billion yuan, an increase of 103.506 billion yuan compared with last week [87]. - Sub - type Issuance: Urban investment bonds had a net financing deficit of 2.052 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing of 16.4014 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing of 4.2019 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing of 6.3494 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing deficit of 310 million yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing of 4.9499 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing deficit of 841.8 million yuan [90][94]. 3.4.2. Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types and their changes were presented [102]. 3.4.3. Secondary Market Transaction Overview The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market was 650.547 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [103]. 3.4.4. Yield to Maturity - Government - backed Bonds: The yields of state - owned development bonds generally declined this week [104]. - Credit Bonds: The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes declined across the board, the yields of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board [104][105][106]. 3.4.5. Credit Spreads - Short - term Financing Bonds and Medium - term Notes: The credit spreads generally showed a downward trend [107]. - Enterprise Bonds: The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend [108]. - Urban Investment Bonds: The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend [110]. 3.4.6. Grade Spreads - Short - term Financing Bonds and Medium - term Notes: The grade spreads showed a differentiated trend [113]. - Enterprise Bonds: The grade spreads generally widened [115]. - Urban Investment Bonds: The grade spreads showed a differentiated trend [118]. 3.4.7. Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds of each type were listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [125][126]. 3.4.8. Changes in Subject Ratings The subject rating of Qingdao Haifa State - owned Capital Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd. was raised to A+ with a stable outlook [130].