油脂周报（P&Y&OI)：潜在利多尚存，油脂偏多对待-20260126

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the oil and fat market, with potential upside due to various factors such as supply constraints, demand fluctuations, and macro - policy impacts [3] - It recommends going long on palm oil and soybean oil, while suggesting a wait - and - see approach for rapeseed oil [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply factor is rated as neutral - bullish. Malaysia is experiencing continuous production cuts, there may be a shortage of imported soybeans from February to March, and the reduction of the import tax rate for Canadian rapeseed before March 1st may change the purchasing rhythm of oil mills. Australian rapeseed also has the expectation of entering commercial crushing [3] - Demand: The demand factor is rated as neutral. The stocking rhythms in India and China have significantly boosted the demand for oils and fats, but the substitution between varieties needs to be considered. The news of Indonesia's possible postponement of B50 has a negative emotional impact on the long - term palm oil price, and the overall quota of US biodiesel is expected to remain at the previous draft level or lower, but the cancellation of penalties on imported feedstocks is more beneficial for the demand of Canadian rapeseed products [3] - Inventory: Palm oil inventory is under observation, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories are tight. Malaysia has high palm oil inventory, while Indonesia has low inventory, and the total inventory in the production areas is expected to reach an inflection point during the production - cut season. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in the first quarter, and rapeseed oil inventory is low due to supply shortages [3] - Macro and Policy: The macro and policy factor is rated as bullish. International geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn will cause an increase in oil and fat prices from the biodiesel end. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled to be released in early March, which is still a potential risk. The postponement of Indonesia's B50 may be due to capital issues, and the spread between crude oil and palm oil prices should be monitored [3] - Investment View: It is recommended to go long on palm oil and soybean oil. For palm oil, it seems that the negative factors have been fully priced in, and the low point may appear in the first quarter. Soybean oil has a strong short - term fundamental outlook, with a window for going long before the Spring Festival, but may face pressure after the Brazilian soybean harvest. Rapeseed oil is greatly affected by policies, so a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on soybean oil and palm oil; for arbitrage, conduct a positive spread trade between P5 and P9. Key risks to monitor include crude oil price rebounds, extreme weather impacts, unexpected production cuts in Malaysia, and the release of the RVO policy [3] Part Two: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 over different time periods [5][9][14] Part Three: Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Oils and Fats - Southeast Asian Weather: It shows data on precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia, including past 14 - day precipitation, precipitation anomaly, future 7 - day and 8 - 14 - day precipitation forecasts, and future 7 - day and 8 - 14 - day temperature anomalies [19][21][23] - Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented [31][35][36] - Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented [37][42] - Indian Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Spread: Data on Indian imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the spread between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented [43][48] - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import profit, and monthly import volume from 2022 - 2026 are presented [49][51][53] - Weather and Soybean Production Situation: It shows the future 15 - day temperature and precipitation distribution in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, as well as the Brazilian soybean harvest rate and Argentine soybean planting progress [61][64][70] - US and Brazilian Export Situations: Data on US soybean cumulative export sales volume, export volume, and exports to China, as well as Brazilian soybean monthly export volume and CNF premium from 2021 - 2026 are presented [75][80] - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, domestic soybean oil production by pressing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory from 2022 - 2026 are presented [90] - Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation: Data on rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed weekly export volume, Canadian rapeseed oil exports, Canadian rapeseed import crushing profit, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and cumulative monthly imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented [91][93] - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Data on China's rapeseed weekly pressing volume, rapeseed oil production by oil mills, rapeseed oil pick - up volume, and weekly rapeseed oil inventory from 2021 - 2026 are presented [101][102]