2026年极简政经史（2）：达沃斯论坛：美国盟友对美国重新“估值”

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Davos Forum highlighted tensions among U.S. allies, with notable figures like Canadian Prime Minister Carney calling for a reassessment of relationships with the U.S.[7] - The market's short-term focus is on Trump's negotiations with NATO regarding Greenland, with the VIX index peaking around 20, indicating limited market volatility[7]. - The forum's discussions suggest a potential shift towards "de-dollarization," benefiting precious metals and commodities in the medium term[7]. Group 2: U.S. Allies' Strategies - U.S. allies are considering reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, which may lead to a depreciation of the dollar due to increased political risk associated with U.S. assets[7]. - The ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and declining fiscal discipline contribute to a market perception of "dollar debasement," favoring investments in physical assets[7]. - A long-term transformation in U.S. allies' relationships could lead to increased investments in Chinese assets, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi[7]. Group 3: Implications for Chinese Enterprises - A reassessment of U.S.-China relations by U.S. allies may open new markets for Chinese enterprises, enhancing their profit margins abroad[7]. - The potential for reduced political risks in overseas markets could facilitate greater access for Chinese companies, previously hindered by U.S. influence[7].