原周报（LG）：原木期货受宏观情绪影响大幅波动-20260126

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Log Weekly Report (LG)]: Log Futures Fluctuate Significantly Affected by Macroeconomic Sentiment [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures [1] Group 2: Main Views and Strategy Overview Supply - The supply factor is bullish. In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, a total of 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters. In the past 4 weeks, a total of 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 26 ships with 920,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 13 ships and 520,000 cubic meters [4]. Demand - The demand factor is neutral. From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, an increase of 7.13% compared to the previous week [4]. Inventory - The inventory factor is neutral. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.46% [4]. Valuation - The valuation factor is neutral. The current log futures price is basically the same as the log delivery cost, within a reasonable range [4]. Investment View - It is more likely that the January FOB price of log futures will rise. At the same time, due to the impact of Christmas in New Zealand, the shipping volume has decreased, and it is expected to run bullishly [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided. Risk focus: Domestic demand situation. Arbitrage: Not provided [4]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Review Futures Price Fluctuation - Log futures fluctuated significantly affected by macroeconomic sentiment. In the first half of the week, log futures increased in positions and declined affected by black building materials varieties, and decreased in positions and rose in the second half of the week. Some specifications in Jiangsu region increased, and the fundamentals were stable and improving [8]. Futures Position - Log positions were basically stable. As of January 23, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 16,472 lots, a 1.4% increase compared to the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 11,610 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24% [15]. Spot Price - Log spot prices were basically stable. As of January 23, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 680, 740, and 850 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 710, 760, and 940 yuan/m³ respectively. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 700, 770, and 800 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 770, 810, and 840 yuan/m³ respectively [19]. Group 4: Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Import Volume - In December 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. In 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41%. In December 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.02%. In 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [24]. Shipping Volume - New Zealand's log shipping volume decreased. In December 2025, about 52 ships of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a month - on - month increase of 3 ships, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase compared to 1.892 million cubic meters in October. In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, a total of 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters. In the past 4 weeks, a total of 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [30]. Inventory - Domestic coniferous log inventory decreased. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.46%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.24%. The North American timber inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8.33%. The spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. In terms of provincial inventory, as of January 16, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.04% compared to the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 410,820 cubic meters, a decrease of 15.18% compared to the previous week [38]. Outbound Volume - The log outbound volume increased. From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, an increase of 7.13% compared to the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 32,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16.13% compared to the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 22,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.98% compared to the previous week [43]. Wood Square Price and Processing Profit - As of January 23, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,170 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 68.5 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 6 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week [46].