豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation phase due to factors such as tight supply expectations and sufficient downstream feed enterprise inventories [6] - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation trend as a result of the co - existence of a loose global soybean supply and positive demand expectations [27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage [6] - Trend judgment logic: The 3rd - week soybean actual crushing volume of oil mills was 1.9942 million tons, with an operation rate of 54.86% and a soybean meal inventory of 947,200 tons. South American weather disruptions delayed soybean harvesting, slowing down the domestic arrival rhythm. Oil mill inventories continued to decline, and some oil mills had shutdown plans around the Spring Festival. However, downstream feed enterprises had sufficient inventories, and the current procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with a dull spot market sentiment and the expectation of a South American bumper harvest [6] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and arrival rhythm [6] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, with slightly more funds. The M2605 was expected to continue its weak oscillation trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is in a sideways stage, with slightly less funds. The M2605 is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][23] 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage [26] - Trend judgment logic: According to Mysteel data, the 3rd - week actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 378,900 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 963,300 tons. The global soybean supply remains loose, and although the domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, it is still at a relatively high historical level. However, the optimistic expectations brought by the US biodiesel policy have boosted the long - term demand outlook, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand is gradually being released [27] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to changes in domestic procurement rhythm, progress of US biodiesel, and South American weather [27] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in an upward stage, with more funds. The Y2605 might maintain an oscillation - strong pattern in the short term [30] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in an upward stage, with slightly more funds. The Y2605 might continue the oscillation - strong pattern in the short term [30] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [40][45][47]