综合晨报-20260126

Group 1: Oil and Related Products - The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran, increasing concerns about Middle East crude supply disruptions. The Tengiz oil field's extended shutdown and US cold wave also affected the market. Despite a recent price rebound, the high inventory pressure in Q1 2026 may limit the price increase [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil followed crude oil in a callback due to the end of cold - wave speculation and EIA's unexpected inventory build - up. High - sulfur fuel oil remained strong, supported by geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of Asian spot spreads [22]. - Kpler data shows sufficient Venezuelan crude arrivals in January, but a significant reduction in shipments since January may lead to supply shortages in February and subsequent months. Cost support and weak terminal demand suggest a short - term bullish but volatile outlook for asphalt [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks have raised the price center of precious metals. However, after gold and silver broke through key price levels, there may be short - term fluctuations due to profit - taking and overbought technical indicators. It is advisable to wait for a stable period before re - entering the market [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices were pushed up by the trading sentiment of precious metals and a weak US dollar. Supply - side factors such as strikes in Chilean small mines and roadblocks affecting large mines are being monitored [4]. - Aluminum prices rebounded on Friday. Geopolitical factors caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the price direction of gold and silver after breaking through key levels [5]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton in the short term. There is an opportunity for short - selling at the 25,000 yuan/ton level due to the expected supply surplus [8]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The production of recycled lead is restricted by high costs and low prices, and environmental protection policies may affect future production [9]. - Nickel prices rose significantly with active trading. However, there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream due to high prices. Short - term sentiment is positive, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10]. - Tin prices continued to rise, driven by investment funds and the expected long - term demand from AI - related investments [11]. Group 4: Industrial Metals and Alloys - Cast aluminum alloy prices follow the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The market is inactive, and the supply surplus is difficult to change. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [6]. - Alumina production capacity is still high, and the supply surplus persists. With falling ore prices, the cost has decreased, but the price is under pressure, and the upside of the futures price is limited [7]. - Industrial silicon's supply is expected to be affected if major enterprises cut production. Demand is weakening, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 9,000 yuan/ton level [14]. Group 5: Steel and Iron - related Products - Steel prices rebounded slightly. Rebar demand decreased slightly, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Hot - rolled coil demand and production both decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline [15]. - Iron ore prices oscillated last week. Global shipments decreased seasonally but remained high year - on - year. Domestic port inventory increased significantly. Demand is weak, but there is still an expectation of winter stockpiling [16]. - Coke prices rebounded. The first price increase was postponed, production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate in a range [17]. - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Production increased slightly, inventory increased, and winter stockpiling demand continued. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [18]. - Manganese ore prices increased slightly. There are structural problems in port inventory. Silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [19]. - Silicon - iron prices increased slightly. Affected by policies, the price is relatively strong. Supply decreased significantly, inventory decreased slightly. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [20]. Group 6: Chemical Products - Polycrystalline silicon's overseas orders increased, but the spot trading is weak. The futures price may face pressure in the future, waiting for the official guidance from the exchange [13]. - Urea prices were stable over the weekend. Downstream demand increased, and production enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - to - long term [24]. - Methanol prices fluctuated due to geopolitical factors. Overseas production is low, and domestic port inventory is high. However, the expected reduction in imports in Q1 provides support, and the short - term price is expected to be strong [25]. - Pure benzene's upward momentum weakened. Supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory in East China ports decreased significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, and slow inventory reduction is expected in the long term [26]. - Styrene prices increased significantly, but downstream resistance to high prices may limit the upside. Supply - demand competition may intensify [27]. - Propylene supply has no obvious pressure, and downstream demand is weak. Polyethylene supply will increase, and demand is weakening. Polypropylene supply pressure is not large, but demand is weak [28]. - PVC prices are strong. Factory inventory decreased, but social inventory increased. There is a possibility of capacity reduction and increased exports this year. Caustic soda prices are oscillating, with high inventory and high production. The profit of chlor - alkali integration may continue to be compressed [29]. - PX and PTA prices increased. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In Q2, there may be opportunities for long - positions in PX processing margins and positive spreads, subject to downstream demand [30]. - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, and polyester load is expected to decline. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In Q2, supply - demand conditions may improve, but the long - term price is under pressure [31]. - Short - fiber production is high, and inventory is low. Downstream orders are weak, but sales increased due to raw material price increases. Bottle - chip production decreased, and processing margins improved slightly. Long - term capacity pressure remains [32]. Group 7: Building Materials - Glass inventory increased slightly, and there is a risk of further accumulation during the downstream holiday season. Production is currently unprofitable, and the price may fluctuate with the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to future capacity changes [33]. - Soda ash inventory decreased slightly but remains under pressure. Some enterprises cut production. The short - term price is expected to follow the macro - trend, and a short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended in the long term [34]. Group 8: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices oscillated. South American soybean harvest is affected by weather, and Chinese soybean purchases are progressing. Attention should be paid to the Brazilian harvest and potential imports from Canada [35]. - Palm oil and soybean oil prices are strong. US biomass diesel policies are favorable, and the supply - demand situation in Indonesia and Malaysia needs to be monitored [36]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Rapeseed supply in Canada is sufficient but exports are weak. The supply of rapeseed oil may be slightly tighter than that of rapeseed meal [37]. - Domestic soybean prices rebounded from a low level. Attention should be paid to policy and spot market guidance [38]. - Corn prices are relatively strong due to reduced available supply and pre - holiday restocking demand. Future price trends depend on the sales progress in Northeast China and auction results [39]. - Pig prices are expected to be strong before the Spring Festival but weak after the holiday. The industry still needs to reduce production capacity, but the current price recovery may slow down this process [40]. - Egg prices are strong due to pre - festival stocking and reduced supply. In the long - term, the fundamental situation is improving, and a long - position strategy on price dips is recommended [41]. - Cotton prices are oscillating. US cotton exports increased significantly. Domestic cotton inventory is high, but demand is stable. The impact of the reduction in Xinjiang's planting area is uncertain [42]. - Sugar prices are oscillating. Indian sugar production is progressing rapidly, while Thai production is slow. In China, the focus is on the expected difference in production. The short - term price faces pressure [43]. - Apple prices are oscillating. Cold - storage sales increased for the Spring Festival, but poor fruit quality and high prices may affect inventory reduction [44]. - Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, demand has increased slightly, and low inventory provides some support. Temporarily hold off on trading [45]. - Pulp prices are oscillating. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory has been increasing for three consecutive weeks. Paper mills' purchases are mainly for immediate needs. Temporarily hold off on trading [46]. Group 9: Financial Products - A - share indexes rose, and futures contracts showed different trends. The market is concerned about the continuity of US dollar liquidity repair and the impact of the Greenland conflict on risk appetite. A - shares are expected to shift from rapid upward movement to a strong - oscillating trend [47]. - Bond prices were strong last week. In the short - term, the yield of medium - to - long - term bonds is likely to oscillate, and the short - term yield may continue to decline due to loose liquidity. There are opportunities for steepening the yield curve and flattening the ultra - steep spread [48]. Group 10: Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) oscillated last week. The "weak reality" logic suppressed the price, while CMA CGM's suspension of resuming flights provided short - term support. The market is expected to be weak - oscillating in the future, and the key factors for near - term and far - term contracts are different [21].