粕类周报：低位震荡，关注南美天气-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the meal sector is bearish, and the trading strategy for the single - side is weak and volatile, with an advice to wait and see for arbitrage [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The meal sector is in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather in South America. The short - term weather speculation in Argentina has weak sustainability and has not formed a reversal driver. As the Brazilian harvest progresses, the CNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure of a bumper soybean harvest, and the M05 contract is expected to be under pressure [2][5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bearish. As of January 17, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 2.3% (last week: 0.6%, last year: 1.2%, five - year average: 3.2%); as of January 21, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 96.2%, slightly behind last year. The proportion of soybeans in good condition was 53% (last week: 61%, last year: 26%). The expected soybean arrivals in China in January, February, and March are 613 million tons, 484 million tons, and 470 million tons respectively. The global rapeseed is expected to have a restorative increase in production in 2025/26, and after March, the imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are expected to increase [5] - Demand: It is neutral. In the short term, the high inventory of live pigs is expected to be maintained, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the rigid demand for soybean meal. However, under the expectation of production capacity adjustment and policy control, the feed demand for soybean meal in the far - month is expected to decrease. The trading volume of soybean meal is average, the提货 performance is normal, and the downstream trading volume of rapeseed meal has increased. The feed cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [5] - Inventory: It is bearish. The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is seasonally decreasing, but the current inventory is still at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased, and the domestic rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted [5] - Basis/Spread: It is neutral, with a neutral basis [5] - Profit: It is bearish. The crushing profit of new - crop soybean purchases in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5] - Valuation: It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively high valuation; from the perspective of absolute price, it is at a relatively low valuation [5] - Macro and Policy: No specific impact is mentioned [5] - Investment View: It is bearish. The short - term weather speculation in Argentina has weak sustainability and has not formed a reversal driver. As the Brazilian harvest progresses, the CNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure of a bumper soybean harvest, and the M05 contract is expected to be under pressure [5] - Trading Strategy: The single - side strategy is weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to policies and weather. The arbitrage strategy is to wait and see [5] 3.2 Meal Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: In January, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season were raised, while the global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio was lowered [29][35] - Soybean Production and Sales: The domestic soybean crushing profit in the US has increased, the soybean export sales progress is slow, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is increasing, and the CNF premium of soybeans shows certain trends. The import volume of soybeans in China has certain monthly characteristics, and the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is at a high level, with a slight increase in the inventory of feed enterprises [45][54][61][71][76] - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal: The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the import crushing profit show certain trends. The import volume of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal has monthly characteristics, and the inventory of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal also shows corresponding changes [66][73][85] - Meal Consumption: The downstream procurement of soybean meal has ended, and the提货 performance is good. The trading volume and提货 volume of rapeseed meal in oil mills have certain trends. The feed production volume, livestock and poultry breeding profits, and livestock and poultry prices also show corresponding changes [80][93][97]