美元债双周报（26 年第4 周）：地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高-20260126

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than market" rating for the U.S. stock market [6][80]. Core Views - The U.S. economy shows resilient consumer spending, with the November PCE price index rising by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating moderate inflation [1]. - The actual GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised up to 4.4%, driven by strong exports and consumer resilience, suggesting robust economic expansion [2]. - Concerns over potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries by European pension funds due to geopolitical tensions have led to market volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields rising [3][4]. - The long-term fiscal situation in the U.S. remains a concern, with a budget deficit of approximately 6% of GDP, historically associated with economic downturns [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The November PCE report aligns with market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1]. - The core PCE also rose by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1]. Market Reactions - European pension funds have begun to sell U.S. Treasuries in response to geopolitical risks, with significant amounts being divested [3]. - The market reacted to these developments with declines in major U.S. stock indices and an increase in long-term Treasury yields [3]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a "short duration core + steepening satellite" strategy for U.S. Treasuries, focusing on 3-5 year investment-grade bonds to secure stable coupon income while managing exposure to long-term bonds [4].