Guoyuan Securities·2026-01-26 06:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [6] Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing significant negative growth, with retail sales of passenger vehicles dropping by 28% year-on-year in the first half of January 2026, and wholesale sales declining by 35% [1][19] - The report emphasizes the need for supportive policies to stimulate market recovery and highlights the potential for growth in the overseas electric vehicle market due to favorable policies in countries like Canada and Germany [3][4] - The report suggests that the domestic market may rebound following the implementation of supportive policies, which could positively impact leading brands [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of January 1-18, 2026, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 679,000 units, a decrease of 28% compared to the same period last year, while wholesale sales totaled 740,000 units, down 35% year-on-year [1][19] - In the same period, retail sales of new energy vehicles were 312,000 units, reflecting a 16% decline year-on-year, and wholesale sales were 348,000 units, down 23% [1][19] Policy Developments - Canada announced plans to import 49,000 electric vehicles from China, significantly reducing tariffs from 100% to 6.1% [3] - Germany introduced a new subsidy program for electric vehicles, offering up to 6,000 euros to families purchasing new electric cars, effective from January 1, 2026 [3][44] - The UK government has launched a substantial subsidy program for electric trucks, with a total budget of 318 million pounds [48] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for Chinese new energy vehicles to expand into overseas markets, driven by favorable international policies [4] - It suggests that the recovery of the domestic automotive market could benefit leading brands significantly [4]