供需弱平衡，节前震荡延续：中辉期货双焦周报-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of black commodities first declined and then rebounded. Iron ore led the decline in the black - series at the beginning of the week, and coking coal and coke futures also weakened significantly. From Thursday, the chemical products sector rebounded across the board, and coking coal and coke prices followed the market sentiment and strengthened [4]. - In terms of supply and demand, some coal mines in the main production areas have stopped production, but most maintain normal production, with a slight increase in daily average output. Spot trading has weakened, and coal prices in the production areas have dropped slightly. Terminal buyers mainly purchase on - demand, and mine inventories have accumulated compared with the previous period [4]. - In terms of imports, the port clearance volume remains above 190,000 tons, maintaining the highest level in the same period. After the continuous decline of the futures market, traders' quotes have generally declined. Currently, the transaction price of some Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton, and the cost of Mongolian coal and Shanxi mainstream warehouse receipts is 1,160 - 1,270 yuan/ton [4]. - After the continuous rise of raw coal prices, the losses of coking enterprises have deepened. The first price increase proposed by coking enterprises was rejected. Some coking enterprises have taken measures such as delaying shipments to downstream customers. The game between coking and steel enterprises is intense, and the first price cut may be implemented, but the upward space is expected to be limited. Currently, steel mills' profits are average, and the pig iron output is basically flat compared with the previous period. Constrained by high raw material prices and safety inspections, steel mills are still cautious about replenishing inventories [4]. - With only three weeks left until the Lunar New Year, downstream demand for raw materials still exists but is difficult to increase significantly. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can exceed 2.3 million tons. From the perspective of capital sentiment, the main contract increased its positions by 3,000 lots this week, and the speculation degree has significantly declined compared with the previous period. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are limited, the futures price is basically at the same level as the Mongolian No. 5 warehouse receipts, and the price is in a relatively reasonable range. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate within a range following the market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high point [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Market - Warehouse Receipt Cost: Different varieties of coking coal have different spot prices and warehouse receipt costs in various locations. For example, the spot price of Mongolian No. 5 in Tangshan on January 22, 2026, was 1,390 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt cost was 1,163 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: The basis, weekly change, basis rate, average value in the past month, and seasonality of different contracts (January, May, September) are provided. For example, the basis of the January contract is - 41, with a weekly change of - 267 and a basis rate of - 3.33% [10]. - Supply - Mine: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9944 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,500 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 770,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [17]. - Coal Washery: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 276,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 37.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [20]. - Import: In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import volume from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [21][24]. - Auction Data: In the week of January 16, 2026, the coking coal listing volume was 1.8641 million tons, the transaction rate was 94.42%, and the non - transaction rate was 5.58%. Compared with the week of January 9, 2026, the listing volume increased by 394,700 tons, the transaction rate increased by 8.57%, and the non - transaction rate decreased by 8.57% [27]. 3.2 Coke Market - Coking Profit: The coking profit in different regions (national, Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong) has different values and weekly changes. For example, the national coking profit on January 22, 2026, was - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [36]. - Basis: Similar to coking coal, the basis, weekly change, basis rate, average value in the past month, and seasonality of different coke contracts (January, May, September) are provided [39]. - Inventory Distribution: As of January 23, 2026, the coke inventory in steel mills was 661,640 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,310 tons; the available days of steel mill inventory were 12.35 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 days; the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 81,450 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 360 tons; the port inventory was 196,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,990 tons [52].