格林期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for both gold and silver in the precious metals sector [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The latest data shows that the possibility of the Fed announcing an interest rate cut at the January 28th meeting is almost zero, and the market generally expects the first rate cut this year to be in June. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, such as the situation in Iran and the disputes between the US and Europe over Greenland, along with the weakening of the US dollar, have driven up the prices of precious metals. Precious metals are experiencing increased short - term volatility, and investors are advised to hold long positions while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.42% to $4983.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.15% to $103.26 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1.66% to 1121.16 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 6.32% to 25650 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of January 23rd, the global largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 6.87 tons to 1086.53 tons, while the global largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust's holdings decreased by 14.1 tons to 16089.98 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [1]. - The EU Commission announced on January 23rd that it would propose to suspend 93 billion euros of retaliatory tariffs against the US for another six months, which was originally scheduled to take effect on February 7th. This followed the US withdrawing its tariff threats against eight European countries over Greenland [1]. - The US is seeking to rewrite its defense agreement with Denmark, aiming to remove restrictions on its military presence in Greenland [1]. - Trump said the US was deploying a large number of troops to Iran, which was seen as the reason for the rise in metal prices on Friday [1]. - On January 23rd, the US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.9 (expected 52, December previous value 51.8), the US January S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 52.5 (expected 52.9, December previous value 52.5), and the US January S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value was 52.8 (expected 53, December previous value 52.7) [1][2]. - On January 23rd, the January euro - zone manufacturing PMI preliminary value rose to 49.4, up 0.6 percentage points from December, higher than the market expectation of 49.1. The euro - zone January services PMI preliminary value was 51.9 (expected 52.6, previous value 52.4), and the euro - zone January composite PMI preliminary value was 51.5 (expected 51.9, previous value 51.5) [2]. - On January 23rd, the Bank of Japan announced to keep the policy interest rate at 0.75%, in line with expectations [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The low probability of a Fed rate cut in January and the expected rate cut in June, along with continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties, have increased the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven asset. Silver also benefits from industrial demand. The weakening of the US dollar and the deterioration of US - EU relations have further intensified market risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the metal market [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Precious metals are experiencing increased short - term volatility. Investors are advised to hold long positions and control risks [2].