黄金白银：2026年1月26日申万期货品种策略日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical uncertainties have increased, boosting the market's risk - aversion demand and further driving up the prices of precious metals. International gold prices have broken through the $5000 mark, and silver prices have exceeded $100. [2] - Economic data shows that inflationary pressure in the US has eased, and employment remains weak. The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The loose liquidity environment provides strong support for the rise of precious metals. [2] - For gold, factors such as the wavering of the US dollar's credit, central bank gold purchases, and rising risk aversion support long - term upward trends. [2] - Silver and platinum have both financial and industrial attributes. In addition to being driven by macro factors, they are also supported by supply - demand gaps. Their price centers are expected to rise steadily. Overall, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend of precious metals. [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Price Changes: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 increased by 28.00 and 28.06 respectively, with increases of 2.57% and 2.58%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 increased by 1633 and 1626 respectively, with increases of 7.01% and 6.97%. [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of Shanghai Gold 2606 is 80,602, and the trading volume is 51,175. The open interest of Shanghai Gold 2604 is 206,580, and the trading volume is 288,050. The open interest of Shanghai Silver 2606 is 160,299, and the trading volume is 476,023. The open interest of Shanghai Silver 2604 is 316,349, and the trading volume is 753,712. [1] - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 is - 8.03, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 is - 5.29. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 is 58, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 is 23. [1] 3.2 Spot Market - Price Changes: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D increased by 26.43, with an increase of 2.44%. The closing price of London Gold increased by 25.47, with an increase of 0.51%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D increased by 1622, with an increase of 6.94%. The closing price of London Silver increased by 6.23, with an increase of 6.42%. [1] 3.3 Spread and Ratio - Spread: The spread between Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 is 2.74 (previous value: 2.80), and the spread between Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 is - 35.00 (previous value: - 42.00). [1] - Ratio: The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 44.44 (previous value: 46.39), the ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold is 1.00, and the ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver is 1.08. [1] 3.4 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: The inventory of gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains unchanged at 102,009 kg, and the inventory of silver decreased by 7962 kg to 581,090 kg. [1] - International Inventory: The inventory of gold in COMEX remains unchanged at 36,144,280 troy ounces, and the inventory of silver decreased by 1,736,840 troy ounces to 416,424,863 troy ounces. [1] 3.5 Related Markets - Financial Markets: The US dollar index decreased by 0.78 to 97.50, the S&P 500 index increased by 2.26 to 6,915.61, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds decreased by 0.02% to 4.24%, and the price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.99 to $65.39. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan increased by 0.0014 to 6.9642. [1] - ETF and CFTC Positions: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 7 tons to 1,087 tons, the position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 14 tons to 16,090 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 6468 to 244,770, and the net position of CFTC speculators in silver decreased by 6846 to 25,214. [1] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic News - Military Deployment in the Middle East: The US Navy's "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East and is conducting operations. The US Air Force will conduct a multi - day combat readiness exercise in the Middle East. Iran's armed forces have entered a state of full alert and will counterattack if attacked. [2] - Japanese Yen Exchange Rate: Japanese Prime Minister Takachi Sanae issued a warning about abnormal exchange - rate fluctuations. Traders are on high alert, and the market may reduce short positions in the yen. If the US participates in potential exchange - rate checks, it may affect the global market. [2] - US Government Shutdown: US Senate Democrats said they would rather let most government agencies shut down than vote for an appropriation bill that includes immigration enforcement funds. [2] - US - Greenland Issue: US President Trump said the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where US military bases are located in Greenland, but Greenland opposes this. [2]