白银周报：避险情绪升温，伦敦银突破100整数关口-20260126

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, silver showed strong performance and reached a new historical high, with London silver breaking through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk - aversion sentiment remains strong, driving up precious - metal prices. The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman may become a short - term market focus. In terms of commodity attributes, the silver market is in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year, and the continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the decline in COMEX inventory indicate a long - term strong trend for silver. It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Weekly View - Silver Trend: Last week, silver oscillated at a high level and reached a new historical high on Friday. London silver broke through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday, closing at $103.341. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high of 25,838 yuan per kilogram. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were 14.7% and 11% respectively, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [7] - US Economy: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17th was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November. The US GDP in the third quarter had a quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years [7] - Inflation: In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The market is focused on the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which may affect expectations of the Fed's future interest - rate path [7] - Interest Rates: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained the same as the previous week, and the US dollar index weakened continuously last week [7] - Supply and Demand: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply - demand gap of over 100 million ounces, and the market has been in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. As of January 23, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. COMEX inventory declined continuously last week. LBMA inventory dropped to a historical low, and most of the silver is linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [7] - Price Difference: The price difference between domestic and foreign silver futures narrowed last week, closing at 1,845. The gold - silver ratio in London spot market closed below 50, at 48.20 [7] 3.1.2 Strategy - It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver through charts [11][15] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts [22][23] 3.4 Inflation - It presents the trends of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE through charts [28][31] 3.5 Interest Rates - It shows the trends of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates through charts [37][39] 3.6 Fundamentals 3.6.1 Global Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to be 1.0306 billion ounces (a 2% year - on - year increase), and demand is expected to be 1.1482 billion ounces (a 1% year - on - year decrease), with a supply - demand gap of 117.6 million ounces (a 21% year - on - year decrease) [43] 3.6.2 Silver Demand - The report presents the trend of silver ETF holdings through a chart [44] 3.6.3 Silver Inventory - It shows the trends of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory through charts [47][53] 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - It presents the trends of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Japanese yen, British pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Canadian dollar through charts [58][64][66] 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures and their price differences through charts [75] 3.9 Silver Basis - It presents the trends of domestic and foreign silver basis through charts [80][85] 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - It shows the trends of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX through a chart [88]