地产政策预期加强，家居情绪有望修复

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate policy expectations are strengthening, which is likely to restore sentiment in the home furnishing sector [3][6] - In 2025, real estate development investment, construction, new starts, and completion areas all saw year-on-year declines, with total investment around 82,788 billion yuan, down 17.2% [3][21] - The report indicates that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery in first-tier cities, with a narrowing decline in new residential sales prices [4][29] - A recent article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes the financial attributes of real estate, indicating a shift in policy logic towards stabilizing financial and asset markets [5][32] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - In 2025, the total investment in real estate development was approximately 82,788 billion yuan, with residential investment at about 63,514 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 17.2% and 16.3% respectively [3][21] - New housing starts decreased by 20.4% to approximately 58,770 million square meters, while residential new starts fell by 19.8% to about 42,984 million square meters [3][21] - The report notes that the completion area for houses was around 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year [3][21] Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The report suggests that the strengthening of real estate policies is expected to boost consumer expectations for home improvement and custom home consumption [6][36] - The article from "Qiushi" stresses the need for a focus on repairing residents' balance sheets and emphasizes the importance of demand-side policies [5][32][33] - The report indicates that if policies expand to include housing subsidies and renovation loans, it would directly benefit home furnishing consumption [8][36] Industry Performance - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the light industry manufacturing index rose by 4.48%, ranking 9th among 31 industry indices [9][38] - The textile and apparel index also increased by 4.48%, ranking 8th [9][38] - The report highlights significant stock performance, with companies like Jiamei Packaging and Pinao showing substantial gains [9][43] Key Data Tracking - In the week of January 11 to January 18, 2026, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1,293,400 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8.5% [10][46] - The report tracks various material prices, noting that TDI and MDI prices were 13,950 yuan/ton and 14,000 yuan/ton respectively, with slight weekly declines [10][13] - Furniture sales in December 2025 totaled 20.73 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year, while building materials and home furnishing sales were 117.96 billion yuan, down 4.4% [10][36]