南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：产区降雨稍有好转但整体有限，关注马来半岛干旱情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As of the end of November 2025, the El Niño index was -0.55, and the Southern Oscillation Index was continuously positive, indicating the formation of La Niña. By early 2026, its intensity remained weak, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia showed no significant deviation, currently having limited impact on palm oil-producing areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the 0 axis, suggesting that La Niña may be nearing its end [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains low. There is almost no precipitation in the Malay Peninsula, with sporadic rainfall in East Malaysia. The rainfall in Kalimantan Island, Indonesia, is slightly higher, while that in Sumatra Island and its surrounding areas is limited [1] - In terms of soil moisture, the southern part of the Malay Peninsula remains dry, and the drought may spread further in February. By March, the entire Malay Peninsula may experience drought. In Sabah and Sarawak, the rainfall is sufficient, and the soil moisture is good across the region, with no drought concerns. In Indonesia, there has been rainfall in Kalimantan Island and Jambi this week, but the soil moisture in Riau and North Sumatra is decreasing. If the rainfall does not improve in February and March, there may be a risk of drought [2] - With limited short - term rainfall and no severe weather disasters, continuous attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [2] Summary by Region Malaysia - Johor: There is almost no precipitation, and the soil moisture is continuously decreasing [71] - Pahang: Rainfall has returned to a low level, and the improvement in soil moisture is insufficient [78] - Perak: Rainfall has decreased at the beginning of the year, and the soil moisture is also decreasing [85] - Sabah: The cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [91] - Sarawak: The rainfall in February is acceptable, and the soil moisture may recover [98] Indonesia - Jambi: Rainfall has slightly improved in February, but the soil moisture has not changed significantly [24] - West Kalimantan: Rainfall increases at the end of the month, but the soil moisture is average [30] - Central Kalimantan: Rainfall increases in February, but the soil moisture is average [37] - East Kalimantan: The rainfall is acceptable, and attention should be paid to whether the soil moisture improves [45] - Riau: The increase in rainfall is limited, and the soil moisture continues to decline [50] - South Sumatra: The increase in rainfall is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the decline in soil moisture [57] - North Sumatra: The rainfall is limited, and the soil moisture is decreasing [64]