地缘风险升温，铂钯双双大涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices are still affected by the overall sentiment of the precious metals sector and geopolitical risks in the short term. Geopolitical risks remain high, driving up precious metals prices, and platinum and palladium fluctuate with the sector [8][9]. - Fundamentally, the global platinum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years. The supply of platinum is shrinking, industrial demand is rising, and low prices have stabilized jewelry and investment demand, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction. The supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to continue in the next few years, so the long - term fundamentals of platinum are optimistic [9]. - For palladium, automotive demand dominates. Due to the surge in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, the growth of palladium demand is suppressed, and it is difficult to see improvement in the short term. Therefore, the fundamental support for palladium is limited, and its trend is affected by platinum linkage and the macro - environment [9]. - Overall, the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is concentrated in fuel - vehicle exhaust catalysts, and the fundamental support is insufficient. Their trends are mainly driven by the overall sector sentiment, and recently by safe - haven demand. They are expected to maintain high volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on platinum PT2606 and palladium PD2606 with light positions [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Weekly Views - Price Trends: Last Friday, there were fluctuations in the platinum and palladium markets. The sharp rise in the spot price of platinum in the external market drove the prices of domestic platinum and palladium to gap up on Friday. Platinum was relatively strong, with the platinum main contract closing at 685.9 yuan, up 10.39%; the palladium main contract closed at 497.95 yuan, up 3.98%. The spot price of external platinum reached a record high of 2704.3 at the early morning of Saturday. The weekly gains of domestic platinum and palladium were 12.4% and 6.1% respectively [8]. - Macroeconomic Situation: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17 was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November, indicating a warming labor market. The final quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter was 4.4%, the fastest in two years, showing robust growth. In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations; the core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, indicating a mitigation of inflation risks. The market is focusing on the upcoming announcement of the new Fed Chairman, which may affect market expectations for the future interest - rate path of the Fed [8]. - News: The sharp rise in precious metals last week was mainly due to the intensification of geopolitical risks, which led to funds flowing into safe - haven assets. The US President's announcement of tariffs on eight European countries and Europe's strong response of selling US Treasuries, along with the deterioration of the situation in Greenland, initially increased geopolitical risks. Although the US President later cancelled the tariffs and gave up the idea of seizing the island by force, the tense relations between Europe and the US and the uncertain situation in Iran still stimulated the market's demand for safe - haven asset allocation [8]. - Fundamentals: In 2026, platinum and palladium are expected to show significant differences. The supply of platinum is continuously restricted, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global production. Its demand structure is diverse, with automotive exhaust catalysts accounting for only about 40%, and the rest coming from investment, jewelry, and industrial fields. Against the background of rising platinum prices, investment demand has increased significantly. At the same time, emerging fields such as the hydrogen - energy industry and commercial spaceflight have opened up long - term growth prospects, and the supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to widen in 2026. The terminal demand for palladium is highly dependent on automotive exhaust catalysts, accounting for over 80%. Suppressed by the accelerating penetration of new energy vehicles and the substitution trend of platinum, the growth of palladium demand lacks imagination. Although there is still a short - term supply gap, it is expected to narrow significantly in 2026, with relatively limited fundamental support [8]. 3.1.2 Strategies - It is recommended to go long on platinum PT2606 and palladium PD2606 with light positions [9]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - The report provides multiple sets of charts, including the trends of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures, London platinum and palladium spot prices, Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum and palladium futures, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum price [12][16][20][24]. 3.3 US Economy - The report presents charts of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm employment numbers, and the unemployment rate, which can be used to analyze the overall situation of the US economy [30][31]. 3.4 Inflation - The report provides charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE to show the inflation situation in the US [36][39]. 3.5 Interest Rates - The report shows charts of US Treasury yields (including short - term and medium - to - long - term) and real interest rates, which can be used to analyze the interest - rate situation in the US [42][45][46]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Platinum: The report provides a global platinum supply - demand balance sheet from 2013 to 2026f, showing the supply from various regions (such as South Africa, Zimbabwe, North America, Russia), different types of demand (automotive, jewelry, IT, etc.), and the supply - demand gap and inventory changes in different years [51]. - Palladium: The report provides a global palladium supply - demand balance sheet from 2009 to 2025, showing the supply from different regions (South Africa, Russia, North America, etc.), different types of demand (automotive, chemical, dental and biomedical, etc.), and the supply - demand gap in different years [52]. 3.7 Futures Positioning - The report provides charts of the external platinum and palladium futures positionings, including non - commercial net long positions and total positions [53]. 3.8 Passenger Car Sales - The report provides charts of China's passenger - car market retail and wholesale data, including the number of vehicles sold and year - on - year changes [60]. 3.9 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the US dollar index and various exchange - rate pairs, including the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar [66][69][72][74]. 3.10 Platinum - Palladium Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets - The report provides charts of the spot price trends of domestic and foreign platinum and the price difference between them [83]. 3.11 Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - The report provides a chart of the platinum - palladium price ratio, including the ratios in NYMEX and LPPM [90].