焦煤价格稳中偏强，双焦期价止跌反弹

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the coking coal price was stable with an upward bias, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures stopped falling and rebounded. The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1157 on Friday with a weekly decline of 1.2%, while the coke 2605 contract closed at 1722 on Friday with a weekly increase of 0.29% [2][3] - For coking coal, supply increased last week while demand remained stable. The coking coal 2605 contract stopped falling and rebounded last week, closing above the 20 - day moving average on Friday. Attention should be paid to the support at the 20 - day moving average [3][4] - For coke, both supply and demand declined last week. The coke 2605 contract stopped falling and rebounded last week and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] - The average coking coal - to - coke ratio last week was 1.49. From the seasonal chart of the past five years, it is currently at a relatively average level in the same period. Attention should be paid to the changes in the 1.35 - 1.55 range [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Coking Coal 1.1 Supply - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 89.3%, a 0.8% increase from the previous week; the daily average output of clean coal was 770,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous week [3] - The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants nationwide was 37.4%, a 0.6% increase from the previous week; the daily average output of clean coal was 276,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous week [3] - Domestic coal mines were still in the process of resuming production, and coal mines in the main production areas had generally resumed production. The coking coal price continued to rise, and the production enthusiasm of independent coal washing plants increased, resulting in a steady increase in coking coal supply [3] 1.2 Demand - As the coking coal price continued to rise while the coke price increase failed to materialize, the profit per ton of coke for coking enterprises narrowed significantly, and some coking enterprises were in a loss - making state. The current round of concentrated replenishment by coking enterprises has basically ended, and coking and steel enterprises have become more cautious in purchasing coking coal. However, most coking enterprises maintained stable production, and there was still rigid demand for coking coal. Some coking and steel enterprises also had the demand for winter storage replenishment [4] - The phenomenon of failed online auctions of coking coal increased recently, and the market sentiment of coking coal declined and returned to rationality [4] 1.3 Inventory - Due to the replenishment demand of coking and steel enterprises, coal mines and coal washing plants had good shipments, and the inventory of clean coal showed a downward trend. However, as the replenishment demand weakened, the market returned to rationality, and downstream enterprises began to control inventory [3] 2. Coke 2.1 Supply - The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 72.41%, a 0.14% decrease from the previous week; the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 633,100 tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous week [6] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. Due to the continuous rise of raw coal prices, the profitability of coking enterprises per ton of coke narrowed, and some coking enterprises in serious losses had plans to reduce production. However, most coking enterprises were still in normal production, and the coke supply remained stable. At ports, the coke spot price was stable, the enthusiasm of traders for shipping to ports was average, and the inventory increased slightly [6] 2.2 Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a 0.16% decrease from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, an 0.86% increase from the previous week [6] - After the Baotou Steel accident, the safety situation of steel mills was tense, and the off - season of steel demand was obvious. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, the rigid demand for coke declined, and the inventory of coke in steel mills was at a relatively high level in history. Steel mills were highly resistant to the coke price increase proposed by coking enterprises, and it was difficult to implement. Overall, steel mills mainly purchased on demand [6] 3. Inventory Data | Commodity | Location | Inventory (10,000 tons) | Weekly Change (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 289.38 | - 9.52 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 1177.71 | 44.86 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 803.24 | 1.04 | | | Total | 2270.33 | 36.38 | | Coke | Port | 196.06 | 7.99 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 81.45 | - 0.36 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 661.64 | 11.31 | | | Total | 939.15 | 18.94 | [8] 4. Other Data | Indicator | Value | Weekly/Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Coking enterprise operating rate (capacity < 1 million tons) | 44.78% | - 0.84% | | Coking enterprise operating rate (capacity 1 - 2 million tons) | 66.46% | - 0.03% | | Coking enterprise operating rate (capacity > 2 million tons) | 77.48% | 0 | | Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide | 78.68% | - 0.16% | | Profitability rate of 247 steel mills nationwide | 40.69% | 0.86% | | Cumulative pig iron output (December) | 83604.10 million tons | - 3.00% | | Cumulative crude steel output (December) | 96081.23 million tons | - 4.40% | [10]