财达期货｜贵金属周报：金银不断创新高-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices are continuously hitting new highs. Gold price is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, while silver price is influenced by the expanding supply gap. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly decreased, it has not affected the upward trend of gold and silver prices. The market shows a supply - demand imbalance, leading to consecutive price increases. However, as prices rise, risks also increase, so one should follow the trend while being aware of risks [2][5][7] Summary by Related Information Gold and Silver Price Performance - Last Friday, gold price rose to $4,980 per ounce, touching the psychological mark of $5,000 during the session. Silver price historically broke through the $100 - per - ounce mark, reaching $103 per ounce with a 7% daily increase. The prices of both gold and silver showed significant upward trends throughout the week [2] Geopolitical Factors - Trump stated in Davos that he would not use force to seize Greenland and withdrew the threat of taxing Europe, but he did not give up on Greenland and warned that the US would retaliate if Europe sold US assets. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems and is considering a full - scale blockade of Cuba's oil imports. Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices [2][3] US Economic Indicators - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January 2026 was 56.4, a five - month high, up 3.5 points from the previous month, higher than the initial value of 54.0 and exceeding the economists' prediction range. In November 2025, inflation - adjusted personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.6% year - on - year, while real disposable personal income increased by only 1%, the smallest annual increase since 2022, and the personal savings rate dropped to a three - year low [3][5] Interest Rate Cut Expectations - After two consecutive quarters of strong economic growth in the US since 2021, the Fed does not seem to face immediate pressure to cut interest rates. The latest market average prediction is that the Fed will start cutting rates in June (previously predicted to be in March), and the second and last cut will occur in September. The expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly decreased [5] Silver Supply and Demand - In 2025, the world's annual silver production was 25,000 tons, with a shortage of nearly 100 million tons. Silver is widely used in photovoltaic production, and Musk's space - photovoltaic concept has increased the demand for silver, contributing to the upward breakthrough of silver price [5] Market Supply - Demand Imbalance - The real supply - demand imbalance in the gold and silver market, combined with the artificial imbalance caused by hoarding, has led to continuous price increases. It is difficult to end this upward cycle without external forces to change the supply - demand structure in the short term [6][7]