股指期货周报：分化整理，小强大弱-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a differentiated consolidation last week, with small-cap indices outperforming large-cap ones. The basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties improved significantly, and the main contracts entered the futures premium mode. The bullish market of A-shares is expected to continue in the future, with sufficient liquidity in the first quarter and theme rotations centered around the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly showed differentiated consolidation, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties improved significantly, and the main contracts entered the futures premium mode. The basis of the main futures contracts (futures - spot) was 5.61 for IH, 6.70 for IF, 68.03 for IC, and 45.86 for IM. The A-share market showed a differentiated consolidation, with the weekly lines of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closing in the positive territory. The small and medium-sized indices were relatively strong, and the daily trading volume of the two markets remained above 2.5 trillion yuan, exceeding 3 trillion yuan on Friday. The money-making effect spread from a structural one to the whole market. The space photovoltaic + commercial space sector remained hot, basic metals and precious metals strengthened, power grid equipment benefited from the trillion-level investment plan, and the logic of semiconductor domestic substitution and technological iteration remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the large financial sector (banks/insurance/securities) adjusted continuously, and sectors such as liquor and home appliances performed poorly [2] Comprehensive Analysis - Macroscopically, the actual GDP in 2025 achieved a 5.0% growth, the same as in 2024, showing a "high in the front and low in the back" structure with external demand better than internal demand, and positive changes appeared in the price level. Overseas, the global bond market experienced a sell-off due to the statements of Trump and Koike Yuriko. The geopolitical risk in the US also reached an inflection point on January 21, and the global panic has been significantly alleviated, with a low possibility of a US or global liquidity crisis in the future. Looking forward, with sufficient liquidity in the first quarter, theme rotations will revolve around the "15th Five-Year Plan", and the fundamentals and corporate earnings are gradually being revised upwards, so the bullish market of A-shares is expected to continue [3][4]