贵金属周报：金价持续强势-20260126

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the gold price continued to rise, with New York gold climbing from $4,600 to nearly $5,000. Although the geopolitical conflict between the US and Europe eased mid - week, causing a brief decline in safe - haven sentiment, the core drivers for the long - term rise of gold price remained unchanged, allowing the price to maintain at a historical high after short - term adjustments [6][23] - In the long run, the US's long - term trend of "weaponizing" economic and financial tools such as tariffs is eroding the US dollar credit system, accelerating the global "de - dollarization" process. Gold, as the "ultimate currency" beyond sovereign credit, has its strategic value redefined and enhanced. Central banks around the world, especially those in emerging markets, are continuously and massively buying gold to build a safer asset base, which provides a solid foundation for the gold price [6][23] - In the short term, attention can be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [6][23] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage chart between the US dollar index and the futures closing price of COMEX gold [10] 1.2 Indicator Changes - COMEX gold rose from $4,601.10 to $4,983.10, a 8.30% increase; COMEX silver rose from $89.95 to $103.26, a 14.80% increase; SHFE gold主力 rose from 1,032.32 to 1,115.64, an 8.07% increase; SHFE silver主力 rose from 22,483.00 to 24,965.00, an 11.04% increase [11] - The US dollar index fell from 99.37 to 97.50, a - 1.88% change; the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell from 6.97 to 6.95, a - 0.22% change [11] - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased slightly from 1.91 to 1.92; the S&P 500 fell from 6,940.01 to 6,915.61, a - 0.35% change [11] - The COMEX gold - silver ratio fell from 51.15 to 48.26, a - 5.66% change; the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell from 45.92 to 44.69, a - 2.67% change [11] - The SPDR gold ETF increased from 1,085.67 to 1,086.53, an increase of 0.86; the iShare gold ETF increased from 492.98 to 494.56, an increase of 1.58 [11] 2. Weakening US Dollar and Rising Gold Price - Last week, the US dollar index continued to weaken while the gold price showed an obvious upward trend. The strengthening of gold and the weakening of the US dollar index reflect the asset re - allocation in the market due to "US policy risks" [13] - The US stock market recovered after hitting a trough last week, with the market risk appetite rising. The short - term improvement in market liquidity also contributed to the rise of the gold price [15] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 23, the combined holdings of SPDR + iShares gold ETFs were 1,581.09 tons, an increase of 2.44 tons from the previous week [17] - Last week, precious metals continued to rise, silver regained its upward momentum, and the gold - silver ratio declined again, with the New York gold - silver ratio dropping to around 48. The decline of the gold - silver ratio is mostly due to the rise of silver, reflecting its high elasticity and increasing industrial demand [19] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is the same as the core views, emphasizing the long - term rise of the gold price, the impact of "de - dollarization" on the gold price, and the need to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [23]