宏观氛围回暖，有色企稳：铜铝周报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the macro environment improving, copper prices may maintain a high - level and strong - running trend. Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the improvement in the Greenland incident has boosted short - term market risk appetite. The continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, when copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark last week, the restocking willingness of some downstream industries increased, and the inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper slowed down. However, as copper prices rebounded, the basis and monthly spread weakened again, and it is expected that the restocking willingness will decline again. Copper prices may maintain a high - level oscillation and wait for industrial follow - up [5]. - Aluminum: With the macro environment improving, aluminum prices may maintain an oscillating trend. Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector. The decline of the US dollar index and the sharp rise of gold largely reflect the intention of global asset allocation, that is, "de - dollarization" [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector [5]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 23, the second - phase project of Tibet Julong Copper Industry was completed and put into operation. The second - phase expansion project was approved, and it is planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025. After reaching full production, the annual ore mining and processing volume will exceed 100 million tons, and the annual copper production will reach 300,000 - 350,000 tons. SMM expects the copper production of Julong Copper Industry to be 165,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026. Last week, the copper ore port inventory increased slightly, and the TC processing fee decreased slightly [24][26]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 335,200 tons, a weekly increase of 7,700 tons; the inventory of COMEX + LME was 727,600 tons, a weekly increase of 47,800 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the inventory accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Industry - On January 23, SMM reported that the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry rebounded by 10.51 percentage points to 67.98% week - on - week. Driven by the Spring Festival stockpiling and the decline of copper prices, downstream orders recovered, leading to the reduction of finished product inventory, and enterprises accelerated production to meet the demand. Looking forward to next week, the stockpiling demand will continue, and SMM expects the operating rate to further increase by 3.23 percentage points to 71.2% [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited [6]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 392,400 tons compared with last week and an increase of 7.17 million tons compared with the same period in 2025 [44]. 3.3.3 Low - level Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 768,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 514,700 tons, an increase of 18,300 tons compared with last week [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Industry - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated around the 24,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of downstream industries increased, and the processing fees of aluminum rods in some areas increased slightly. On January 22, the aluminum rod inventory was 123,300 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with last week. The aluminum rod inventory is about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, but high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [54][57]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline, indicating a strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. The decline of copper prices was mainly due to the cooling of the macro environment, and the non - ferrous sector and even the commodity market declined. The willingness of short - term funds to close positions continued to increase. In the macro aspect, the overseas US dollar index continued to rebound, and the margin ratio of margin trading in China was raised, increasing the market regulation expectation. In the industrial aspect, the monthly spread of nearby contracts weakened significantly, electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream industries were in a wait - and - see mood. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of some industries increased, which may provide some support for copper prices. The long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [60].