Guoxin Securities·2026-01-26 08:36Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the hotel industry [6] Core Views - The domestic hotel industry is at a historical cycle bottom, with expectations for RevPAR to bottom out and recover in 2026 [31] - The industry is experiencing a shift from an "OCC first" strategy to a "best RevPAR" strategy among leading players, indicating a focus on pricing power and revenue management [43][49] - The REITs framework is evolving, allowing for better capital management and operational efficiency among leading hotel groups [64] Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Industry Valuation Discussion - The market capitalization of leading domestic hotel players has shown non-linear growth, driven by cyclical turning points and capital consolidation [12] - Valuation frameworks are anchored by macroeconomic cycles, with growth acting as a catalyst, and long-term views focusing on scale and ROE [17][28] 2. Current State of the Domestic Hotel Industry - The supply-demand relationship is adjusting, with a potential recovery in RevPAR expected in 2026 as the market stabilizes [31] - Demand for leisure travel remains strong, while business travel is recovering at a slower pace, influenced by service consumption policies [41][66] 3. Sector Valuation Recovery Initiation - Leading hotel companies are expected to show performance elasticity, with historical valuation recovery patterns suggesting potential for significant upside [3] - The report recommends overweighting leading hotel stocks, including Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotel, Atour, and Junting Hotel, based on their growth potential and market positioning [3][6]