瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The MTO industry's weekly average operating rate continued to decline last week, and there is an expectation that the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate will still decrease. The MA2605 contract should pay short - term attention to the pressure around 2350, avoid chasing up rashly, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2347 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 13 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the main methanol contract is 855,550 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 48,556 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures is - 122,843 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 19,632 lots [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 7,695, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2295 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1795 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 52 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [2] - The CFR price of methanol in the main Chinese port is 267 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, with no change [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 269 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 55 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 5.35 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.49 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 102.53 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.36 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 43.22 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.58 tons [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 12.45 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.14 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 31.64 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 438,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.92%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.19% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.51%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51% [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.27%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44% [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 84.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.48%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1104 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.64%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.52%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.71%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 24.88%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.63%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 24.9%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.64% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [2] - As of January 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.58 tons. There was a slight accumulation of methanol port inventory this week, with 19.80 tons of obvious foreign vessel unloading during the period, and there were still two vessels being unloaded that were not included [2] - As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing continued to be shut down, and the load of individual enterprises continued to decrease [2]