瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously recommends a bullish view on L2605 in the plastic industry [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The upward driving force for plastics is limited from a fundamental perspective, and a cautious bullish view is taken on the future trend of L2605 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 6935 yuan/ton, with a 70-yuan increase; the 1-month contract is 6974 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the 5-month contract is 6935 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 9-month contract is 6962 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2] - The trading volume is 611,978 lots, a decrease of 107,819 lots; the open interest is 515,013 lots, a decrease of 4,043 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 39, an increase of 18 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions for polyethylene is 504,604 lots, an increase of 882 lots; the sell order volume is 527,603 lots, an increase of 3,151 lots; the net buy order volume is -22,999 lots, a decrease of 2,269 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 6862.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 78.26 yuan; in East China, it is 6928.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.7 yuan [2] - The basis is -72.39, an increase of 8.26 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in the Singapore region is 60.27 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.01 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 565.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 686 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it is 706 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 84.67%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 44.96%, a decrease of 3.19 percentage points; for pipes, it is 29%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it is 36.32%, a decrease of 0.61 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 13.76%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.96%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 15.4%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; for at - the - money call options, it is 15.39%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, China's polyethylene production totaled 698,900 tons, a 4.34% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, an increase of 3.07 percentage points [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.4% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.6%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 3.2% [2] - As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week; the social inventory of PE was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from the previous week [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.22% to 7202 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.54% to 6524 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 27 yuan/ton to 244 yuan/ton [2]