瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. The aluminum price remains high due to macro - expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of sufficient supply and weak demand. Due to cost support, the cast aluminum price remains in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,215.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; the main contract position is 322,085.00 hands, down 18,490.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 155.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,173.50 US dollars/ton, up 41.00 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 507,275.00 tons, down 2000.00 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.63, down 0.12 [2]. - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,732.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the main contract position is 488,440.00 hands, down 6325.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 138.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,010.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; the main contract position is 11,389.00 hands, down 5206.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 24,030.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 24,130.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 180.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 3.75 US dollars/ton, up 15.23 US dollars [2]. - Alumina Spot: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan. The basis of alumina is - 177.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 24,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 990.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina import volume is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons; the alumina export volume is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons. The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,650.00 yuan/ton, up 250.00 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 18,150.00 yuan/ton, up 250.00 yuan. The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in China is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the primary aluminum export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons. The electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 71.50 million tons, up 0.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 million tons, down 1.60 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 23.56%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.88%, up 0.06%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option is 23.97%, up 0.0385%. The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.72, up 0.0027 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the US, the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value of 51.8; the services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5, and the composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8, all slightly lower than expected [2]. - In the Eurozone, the January Manufacturing PMI preliminary value rebounds slightly to 49.4, still in the contraction range; the services PMI preliminary value drops to 51.9, lower than expected. In Germany, both the manufacturing and services PMIs rebound more than expected. In France, the manufacturing PMI rises to a nearly four - year high of 51, but the services PMI slows sharply to 47.9 [2]. - The National Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Work Conference emphasizes promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, implementing the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and promoting large - scale consumption such as automobiles and home furnishings. It also focuses on cultivating new growth points in service consumption and new types of consumption [2]. - Jiangsu Province will continue to promote large - scale equipment updates and optimize the implementation of the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones in 2026, with specific subsidy standards for different types of products [2]. - In 2026, the automobile replacement subsidy in Chongqing is open for application, with the first - batch of funds of 185 million yuan. Consumers can get subsidies according to 8% or 6% of the new - car sales price [2]. - In Beijing, the number of new - energy vehicles exceeds 1.3 million, and the proportion of new - energy and "National V - standard" or above vehicles exceeds 80%. In 2025, Beijing implemented policies to scrap and update old trucks and large - and medium - sized buses, and made progress in the new - energy vehicle field [2].