橡胶甲醇原油：地缘风险主导，能化再度走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating upward, and slightly closing higher on Monday. The price center of the contract moved slightly above the 16,230 yuan/ton level during the session, and the price closed slightly up 0.43% to 16,230 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 70 yuan/ton. The overall strength of the energy - chemical sector boosted the Shanghai rubber futures into a bullish atmosphere, and it is expected that the rubber price may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing significantly higher on Monday. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,358 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,300 yuan/ton, and closed significantly up 3.39% to 2,347 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 13 yuan/ton. As geopolitical risks re - emerged, methanol futures may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating upward, and closing significantly higher on Monday. The futures price rose to a maximum of 459.2 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 444.0 yuan/barrel, and closed significantly up 4.07% to 457.3 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East re - emerged, the premium of crude oil was re - increased, and the short - term oil price maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises fluctuated. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' foreign trade orders supported a slight increase in device production scheduling, while most other enterprises maintained stable production scheduling. The full - steel tire shipment pressure increased, and some enterprises moderately controlled production, dragging the capacity utilization rate slightly down. Currently in the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking stage, most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production scheduling to reserve inventory for post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. The production and sales reached a new high, and the production and sales scale remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. Cumulatively, in 2025, the total sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market reached a new high in the past four years, reaching 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol start - up rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.23%. In the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period of the previous year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde start - up rate was maintained at 25.43%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.33%. For dimethyl ether, the start - up rate was maintained at 5.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid start - up rate was maintained at 84.70%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.58%. The MTBE start - up rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant increase of 255,600 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a week - on - week slight increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant increase of 14.386 million barrels compared with the same period of the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.063 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.478 million barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 414.5 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 806,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery start - up rate was maintained at 93.3%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts or 34.07% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts or 95.12% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,100 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,230 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | - 130 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,335 yuan/ton | +53 yuan/ton | 2,347 yuan/ton | +49 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | +4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 420.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 457.3 yuan/barrel | +15.4 yuan/barrel | - 37.1 yuan/barrel | - 15.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire start - up rate trend, and semi - steel tire start - up rate trend [15][16][18][22][24][26]. - Methanol: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin start - up rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - Crude Oil: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery start - up rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][43][45][47][49].