特朗普中选年的三支箭

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Trump's policies in the new year aim to address domestic and international issues, providing a more favorable macro - environment for the AI narrative. The role of monetary policy is narrowing, and fiscal policy is expanding. The traditional economic policy framework is being replaced by the White House's executive power. In 2026, Trump will maximize his executive power, and the success of domestic policies will be judged by voters, while the international affairs will affect the US dollar credit [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Arrow: Improving Affordability Domestically - Trump uses administrative means to control living costs instead of relying on the Fed's monetary policy, aiming to stimulate the "cold" end of the K - shaped economy (low - income groups and suppressed employment) [5]. - The labor income share of the US "working class" dropped to 53.8% in Q3 2025, continuing the downward trend since 2000. Tax cuts or direct cash - handouts will increase the government transfer payment ratio and cause greater fiscal deficit pressure [6]. - Trump's direct policies include setting a 10% credit - card interest - rate cap and intervening in the housing market (launching 50 - year mortgages and having "Fannie & Freddie" buy $200 billion of MBS). The 10% credit - card interest - rate cap is controversial and likely to backfire, causing a decline in credit supply and potential moral hazards, as well as increased inflation pressure. The purchase of MBS by "Fannie & Freddie" can increase mortgage demand and compress mortgage spreads to some extent [10][14]. - Trump's administrative means rely on the Fed's support, but his attempt to force Powell to resign may backfire. His control over the new Fed chair candidate is increasing, which is more "friendly" to the capital market [16]. Second Arrow: Seeking the "Greatest Common Divisor" of US Interests Abroad - Trump's actions in Venezuela and his interest in Greenland are to seek the greatest common divisor of "US national interests, voter concerns, and his political demands". The "Absolute Determination Operation" in Venezuela aims to build a US - led "Western Hemisphere energy fortress", and his interest in Greenland is for personal political gain and to achieve national strategic goals [19]. - Trump advocates an economic nationalism model to replace the Davos globalist model. His negotiation art often involves extreme pressure, and he may use various means such as tariffs and military intervention. Assets like gold and Bitcoin will face more frequent event - driven shocks [20]. - As the marginal utility of Trump's threats decreases, he may issue secondary threats, which may lead to the selling of US assets, rising long - term US Treasury yields, and increased liquidity pressure on the US stock market [21]. Third Arrow: Maintaining AI Leadership - Trump requires AI companies to prioritize US national interests, and his domestic and international policies are to create a better macro - environment for AI development. The investment proportion of computer and related equipment and data centers is increasing [22][23]. - In 2026, the importance of external financing for AI companies has increased, and the risk of private - credit funds investing in AI is also gathering. The current stock - price increase of AI companies far exceeds the debt - market pricing, and there is a potential risk of a significant stock - price correction [27][30]. Finally: The High Cost Borne by the US Dollar Credit - Trump's policies aim to maintain the stability of the US economic system, but their dynamic impacts are complex and uncertain, including fiscal, inflation, and deficit pressures. These policies are similar to the "Modern Monetary Theory" (MMT) previously advocated by the far - left [31]. - Administrative logic can temporarily overcome economic logic, but economic laws cannot be cancelled. The costs suppressed by administrative orders may turn into future inflation, default risks, and higher systemic volatility. The cost of Trump's policies will be borne by the US economy and the US dollar credit [32].