甲醇：港口库存高位震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The 05 contract faces resistance at the 2400 level. The market is influenced by factors such as high port inventories, weak downstream demand, expected import reductions, and macro - sentiment fluctuations. Despite high domestic methanol production expectations and abundant supply, the expected decline in port arrivals in January and stable downstream demand this week contribute to the anticipated price stability [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - Port Market: Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated within a range. The price in Jiangsu was between 2180 - 2250 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was between 2180 - 2240 yuan/ton. The market was affected by high port inventories, weak downstream demand, expected import reductions, and macro - sentiment fluctuations [1]. - Domestic Market: The domestic methanol price continued to decline. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line was between 1787 - 1835 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price was between 2115 - 2115 yuan/ton. Due to factors like the dissipation of macro - sentiment premiums, abundant domestic supply, high inventories in the middle and lower reaches, and the seasonal off - peak demand, the market continued to decline [1]. - Outlook: Methanol enterprises' overall profits are poor. Domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. With the implementation of seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East, port arrivals are expected to decrease in January. Downstream demand is expected to be stable this week. Given the abundant supply and high port inventories, the price is expected to fluctuate in the near term [1]. Factors to Watch - Methanol production start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2]. Weekly Fundamental Data Changes - Price and Basis: The basis in Jiangsu decreased from - 9 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 26 yuan/ton or - 288% [3]. - Inventory: The inland methanol sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.26 tons to 43.83 tons, a - 2.79% change. The port methanol inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 145.75 tons, a 1.55% change [3]. - Production: The weekly production decreased by 2.65 tons to 200.89 tons, a - 1.30% change [3]. - Profit: The profit from Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production decreased by 17.20 yuan/ton to - 268.8 yuan/ton, a - 6.84% change; the profit from North China coke - oven gas - based methanol production decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 77 yuan/ton, a - 28.04% change; the profit from Southwest natural - gas - based methanol production decreased by 28 yuan/ton to - 266 yuan/ton, a - 11.76% change [3]. - Downstream开工率: The downstream acetic acid production start - up rate increased by 2.27 percentage points to 80.67%, a 2.90% change; the downstream olefin production start - up rate decreased by 1.78 percentage points to 85.15%, a - 2.05% change [3]. Specific Market Analysis - Spot and Futures Markets: The port methanol market fluctuated last week, with the Jiangsu price ranging from 2180 - 2250 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: As of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 89.92%, a 1.31% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly profit of coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia was - 268.80 yuan/ton, a - 6.84% week - on - week and - 496.01% year - on - year change; the average profit of coal - based production in Shandong was - 176.80 yuan/ton, a + 10.07% week - on - week and - 228.21% year - on - year change [8]. - Demand: As of January 22, 2026, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 44.38%, a 9.46 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased as some previously - overhauled plants increased their loads [10]. - Inventory: As of January 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 145.75 tons, a 2.22 - ton week - on - week increase and a 52.78 - ton year - on - year increase, a 56.77% year - on - year change [12]. - Position: As of January 23, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market was 637,491, an increase of 3,813, and the short - position volume was 740,702, a decrease of 22,202. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [15].