铜：多空因素交织，高位持续拉锯

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, copper prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors on the macro and fundamental fronts. The Greenland incident boosted market risk - aversion, and good US employment and inflation data paused the rate - cut expectations. Bond market selling pressured the US dollar, which supported copper prices. On the supply side, strikes in Chilean mines led to production halts, and smelting profits were squeezed, providing bottom - line support for copper prices. On the demand side, there was a clear divergence between "strong expectations" and "weak reality." High prices and the pre - Spring Festival off - season led to weak downstream transactions, but AI infrastructure offers potential for future copper demand. Currently, accumulated visible inventories and weak spot transactions will pressure copper prices, while the short - term resonance of the metal sector has a positive impact. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The key turning point is the marginal improvement of the "weak reality," and once long - term expectations turn into real demand, copper prices may open up new upside space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The copper market was affected by multiple factors last week. Macro factors included the Greenland incident, US economic data, and the performance of the bond market. Supply - side factors were the ongoing strikes in Chilean mines and the pressure on smelting profits. Demand - side factors showed a gap between expectations and reality. The market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation with a potential for an upward breakthrough when demand improves [2]. Key Concerns - The report suggests paying attention to the latest Sino - US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 100680 | 101770 | - 1090 | - 1.07% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 180 | - 110 | - 70 | - 63.64% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot composite index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 49.8 | - 46.4 | - 3.4 | - 7.33% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 101810 | 102770 | - 960 | - 0.93% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 171700 | 143575 | 28125 | 19.59% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 225937 | 213515 | 12422 | 5.82% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | Short tons | 562605 | 542914 | 19691 | 3.63% | Weekly | [3] Other Analyses - The report also includes analyses of the futures market, supply, demand, and inventory, with corresponding data charts. However, specific data and trends from these charts are not elaborated in the text [5][11][13][21].