生猪期货：重回底部震荡区间

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From January 19 - 25, 2026, the live hog futures and cash markets showed a pattern of "first declining then stabilizing, stronger in the north and weaker in the south". The main contract LH2603 fell 3.75% weekly to close at 11,580 yuan/ton, and the national average price of external ternary live hogs was 13.0 yuan/kg on January 25. The core drivers were the game between pre - holiday stocking and second - round fattening hog sales, and high frozen product inventory and slaughter losses suppressed the price increase [1]. - On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking and low - temperature weather drove up procurement, but slaughter enterprise losses and high frozen product inventory restricted the operating rate. On the supply side, large - scale enterprises' hog sales progress was behind schedule, second - round fattening hog sales increased, some regions delayed hog sales to gain more weight, and the expectation of concentrated hog sales at the end of the month was rising [1]. - The per - head profit of hog farmers improved slightly but remained near the break - even point. The slaughter end continued to suffer losses, forcing price cuts in hog procurement and limiting the upside space for the spot price [1]. - In the future, it is highly probable that the market will fluctuate within a range. As pre - holiday stocking approaches the end, the pressure of concentrated hog sales emerges. Futures and spot prices will maintain narrow - range fluctuations, the pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south will continue, and price elasticity will be limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The live hog futures and cash markets from January 19 - 25, 2026, were "first declining then stabilizing, stronger in the north and weaker in the south". The main contract LH2603 had a weekly decline of 3.75% to 11,580 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of external ternary live hogs was 13.0 yuan/kg on January 25. The key factors were the game between pre - holiday stocking and second - round fattening hog sales, along with high frozen product inventory and slaughter losses suppressing price increases. The future trend is likely to be range - bound with narrow - range fluctuations and a continued north - strong, south - weak pattern [1]. Factors to be Concerned About - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | Yuan/head | 343.33 | 309.05 | 34.28 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | Kilograms | 123.51 | 123.05 | 0.01 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | Yuan/head | 37.85 | - 39.11 | 76.96 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | Yuan/head | 115.96 | 65.3 | 52.46 | Weekly | | Slaughter operating rate | % | 34.13 | 33.47 | 0.66 | Weekly | [3]