现实格局弱稳，钢矿偏弱震荡：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.29%. The supply of rebar has increased to a high level, while the demand is weak. The fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. With cost support and positive sentiment, the downward resistance increases. The steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The supply of hot - rolled coil has decreased, but the inventory is high and the pressure remains. The demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The speculative demand is acceptable, and the trend is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore weakened and declined, with a daily decrease of 0.95%. The supply of ore has shrunk, but the inventory is high, and the positive effect is not strong. The demand is weak, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved. The ore price is still prone to pressure. The positive factors are the steel mills' replenishment and the positive sentiment of commodities. The ore price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' replenishment [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry Dynamics - As of January 26, 2026, the total new - signed contract value of 7 major construction central enterprises in 2025 exceeded 11.7 trillion yuan. China State Construction's new - signed contract value in 2025 was 454.58 billion yuan. In the construction business, the new - signed contract value was 415.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. In the real estate business, the contract sales volume was 39.48 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [7]. - Thailand made a second anti - dumping sunset review final ruling on cold - rolled carbon steel coils and non - coils from China (mainland, Taiwan region) and Vietnam, maintaining the original tax rate and continuing to impose an anti - dumping tax on the products at the CIF price for 5 years. The tax rate for mainland China is 9.24% - 20.11% for cold - rolled carbon steel products with a width greater than 1550 mm [8]. - The World Steel Association reported that the global crude steel production in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons. In December 2025, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the statistics decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. The production in different regions showed different trends, such as a decrease of 6.3% in Asia and Oceania and an increase of 3.9% in the EU (27 countries) [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan, Tianjin was 3,170 yuan, and the national average was 3,324 yuan. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, it was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin 3,180 yuan, and the national average was 3,304 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,950 yuan, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 40 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,120 yuan. For iron ore, the price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 787 yuan, and Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 782 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 7.80 yuan, and from Brazil 21.59 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.87 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 104.65 yuan [10]. Futures Market - In the futures market, the closing price of rebar was 3,143 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a trading volume of 809,245 lots, and an open interest decrease of 10,906 lots. The closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3,302 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.12%, a trading volume of 391,114 lots, and an open interest increase of 27,500 lots. The closing price of iron ore was 784.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.95%, a trading volume of 261,690 lots, and an open interest decrease of 636 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report presents various inventory and production - related charts, including steel inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore inventory (45 - port, 247 - steel - mill, domestic mine iron concentrate powder), and steel - mill production situation (247 - sample steel - mill blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent - electric - furnace operating rate, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material - independent - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation) [14][22][27] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply has increased to a high level, and the demand is weak. The fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. With cost support and positive sentiment, the downward resistance increases. The steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [34]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply has decreased, but the inventory is high and the pressure remains. The demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The speculative demand is acceptable, and the trend is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - For iron ore, the supply has shrunk, but the inventory is high, and the positive effect is not strong. The demand is weak, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved. The ore price is still prone to pressure. The positive factors are the steel mills' replenishment and the positive sentiment of commodities. The ore price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' replenishment [35].