双焦周报：基本面矛盾有限，短期震荡为主-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices remained stable. On the supply side, coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang that were previously shut down or restricted are gradually resuming production, and the overall supply of coking coal is increasing steadily. Due to strict safety inspections recently, most coal mines are maintaining their previous production rhythms, and the supply of the main coal types without obvious inventory is in a tight balance. The coke market continues to be in a game situation, with continuous voices for the first round of price increase for coke, but there is still no clear implementation time [2]. - Looking ahead, the winter storage of downstream coking coal enterprises is still ongoing, and there is an expectation that the production of supply - side coal mines will decline approaching the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has a small upward momentum. However, the upward driving force of the futures market is limited after the previous concentrated trading on the restocking logic, so it is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Price Trend: This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices remained stable. The supply of coking coal is increasing steadily, and the coke market is in a game over the first - round price increase [2]. - Future Outlook: The winter storage of downstream coking coal enterprises continues, and the production of coal mines is expected to decline approaching the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will improve marginally, with a small upward momentum for spot prices, while the futures market is expected to fluctuate [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory is 2270.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 36.38 million tons (1.63%); the total coke inventory is 939.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.94 million tons (2.06%) [4]. - Production: The daily average pig iron production of steel mills is 228.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons (0.04%); the daily average coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises is not specifically given in text data but presented in figures. The daily average production of refined coal from mines and coal washing plants is also presented in figures [4]. - Profit: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises is - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton (1.54%); the profitability rate of 247 steel mills is presented in figures [4]. Market Data Presentation - Futures Market: The 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke's main contracts is presented, but no specific data analysis is given [6]. - Spot Market: The aggregated average price of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian main coking coal, the aggregated price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke, and the first - class arrival price in Hebei Iron and Steel are presented in figures, with no specific data analysis [8][11]. - Fundamental Data: Multiple data on production, inventory, and profit are presented in figures, including the daily average production of refined coal, Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, coking coal and coke inventory and available days, etc. [18][20]