美元债双周报（26年第4周）：地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Underperform" for the US stock market [6] Core Viewpoints - The inflation in the US is moderate and consumer spending remains an important support for economic growth, but the decline in the savings rate may pose pressure on medium - and long - term consumption power [1] - The strong economic growth and stable employment in the US make the market expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with the first rate cut possibly occurring between June and July [2] - The potential large - scale selling of US Treasury bonds by Europe is less likely, and the current market does not have the basis for a sharp rise in yields due to panic selling [3] - The US Treasury bond market is in a multi - factor game, and it is recommended to adopt a "short - duration core + steepening satellite" configuration [4] Summaries by Directory US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The PCE price index in the US in November was in line with expectations, with the core PCE remaining at a relatively high level but not significantly exceeding expectations, indicating that inflation pressure has eased but is still above the Fed's 2% long - term target [1] - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in Q3 2025 was revised up to 4.4%, slightly exceeding expectations, and the core PCE remained at 2.9%, higher than the Fed's target [2] - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a nearly 97% probability of no rate cut, and the first rate cut may be between June and July [2] - Geopolitical risks and concerns about non - US investors' potential reduction of US Treasury bond holdings have pushed up yields across all maturities of US Treasury bonds, and the 10 - year yield has exceeded the high since August last year [4] - The large increase in Japanese government bond yields has also put upward pressure on the long - end of US Treasury bonds [4] - The long - term concern in the US Treasury bond market lies in the US's fiscal situation, with the current budget deficit accounting for about 6% of GDP [4] Exchange Rates - The report provides information on the trends of non - US currencies in the past year and recent changes, as well as the spreads between Chinese and US sovereign bonds, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury bond rate, etc [54][59] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - It shows the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023, classified by level and industry, as well as the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds [64][72] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies have taken 11 rating adjustment actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 2 rating upgrades, 2 rating downgrades, and 5 initial ratings [76]