AI的Memory时刻5：AINAND供需紧张，涨价仍有弹性

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [36]. Core Insights - The demand for NAND storage is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing requirements of AI applications, with a projected growth rate of 21% in NAND demand by 2026, driven by the deployment of AI servers [3][30]. - The supply side is constrained as major manufacturers are focusing their investments on HBM and advanced processes rather than expanding NAND production capacity, leading to a tight supply-demand situation [3][25]. - NAND Flash contract prices are anticipated to rise significantly, with an expected increase of 105%-110% for the year 2026, which will enhance the industry's revenue growth [3][28]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Increasing NAND Storage Capacity for GPUs - The storage capacity corresponding to each GPU is continuously increasing, with significant requirements for enterprise-level SSDs due to the high IOPS needed for AI applications [3][11]. - For instance, the H100 GPU is estimated to require 4TB of eSSD, while the B100/200 GPUs may need 8TB, and in optimistic scenarios, the Rubin GPU could require up to 24TB [3][30]. Section 2: Slow Release of New Production Capacity - The pace of new capacity release is slow and is unlikely to match the growth in demand in the short term, with major manufacturers prioritizing HBM production over NAND [3][25]. - New wafer fabs are being planned, but their completion and production ramp-up will take time, further exacerbating supply constraints [3][26]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI memory as a foundational capability for supporting context continuity and personalization in AI applications, suggesting that the value of AI memory is shifting from a cost item to an asset item [3][30]. - It recommends focusing on key beneficiaries within the industry chain that are poised to gain from these trends [3][30].