银河期货油脂日报-20260126

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Galaxy Futures' Grease Daily Report [1][2] - Report date: January 26, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis - Spot prices and basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on January 26, 2026, were 8226, 9092, and 9345 respectively, with price increases of 132, 182, and 354. The basis for soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin was 540, 480, and 330 respectively; for palm oil in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin was -30, -30, and 130 respectively; for rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi was 800, 850 [2]. - Monthly spreads: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 88, 42, and 90 respectively, with changes of -6, 4, and 62 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: The 05 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were -866, 1119, and 253 respectively, with changes of -50, 222, and 172. The oil - meal ratio was 2.97, with a change of 0.03 [2]. - Import profits: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -141, and the CNF price was 1095. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was -1420, and the FOB price was 1049 [2]. - Weekly commercial inventories: As of the 3rd week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 73.6, 74.6, and 27.5 million tons respectively [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - International market: According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%, with different decreases in different regions [4]. - Domestic market - Palm oil: Affected by factors such as possible changes in China - Canada rapeseed trade, palm oil futures prices rose by over 2%. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 74.61 million tons, a 1.37% increase from the previous week. The import profit was inverted, and the basis was stable to weak. It is expected to maintain a high - inventory situation with limited upside space, and the short - term disk will oscillate [4]. - Domestic market - Soybean oil: Soybean oil futures prices rose by over 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 210.21 million tons, and the startup rate was 57.83%. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 96.33 million tons, a 6.03% decrease from the previous week. The basis was stable. It is expected to have a slight inventory reduction but still maintain an adequate supply, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Domestic market - Rapeseed oil: Rapeseed oil futures prices rose by over 3%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0 million tons, and the startup rate was 0%. As of January 23, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week. The import profit was inverted. The short - term available spot supply was tight, and the basis was supported. It is expected to continue inventory reduction, and the near - month contract's downside space is limited [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: In the short term, the grease market oscillates with increased volatility and many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Arbitrage: Adopt the strategy of buying the March contract and selling the May contract for rapeseed oil when the price difference is low [10]. - Options: Wait and see [11] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 5 - 9 monthly spread, P 5 - 9 monthly spread, OI 5 - 9 monthly spread, Y - P 05 spread, and OI - Y 05 spread [14][15][18][22]