欧盟碳市场行情简报（2026年第16期）-20260126

Report Summary - Report Title: EU Carbon Market Briefing (Issue 16, 2026) [1] - Release Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Reporting Company: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The EU carbon market has returned to fundamentals after the tariff storm subsided [1] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - Primary Market: The EUA auction price was 87.51 euros/ton, a 1.11% increase, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.42 [2] - Secondary Market: The EUA futures settlement price was 88.4 euros/ton, a 0.08% decrease, and the trading volume was 27,700 lots, a 2.39% decrease [2] Strategy - Signal Strength: 1 (0 means short position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means long/short) [3] - Bullish Factors: Cold weather in northern and central Europe has continuously increased heating demand, intensifying LNG regional competition, and the TTF is running strongly [3] - Bearish Factors: No new bearish factors [3] Charts - Chart 1: Shows EUA auction price, CBAM certificate price, EUA auction volume, bid - to - cover ratio, and auction revenue on January 23 and 22, 2026 [5] - Chart 2: EUA auction price seasonal trend chart [5] - Chart 3: EUA auction bid - to - cover ratio seasonal trend chart [5] - Chart 4: EUA futures and spot market information including futures settlement price, trading volume, open interest, and spot settlement price, trading volume on January 22 and 23, 2026 [6] - Chart 5: EUA futures and spot prices and basis [6] - Chart 6: Seasonal chart of December contract open interest [6]