HIKVISION(SZ:002415) Guoyuan Securities·2026-01-26 10:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - Hikvision's total revenue for 2025 is projected to be CNY 925.18 billion, showing a slight year-on-year growth of 0.02%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 141.88 billion, reflecting an 18.46% increase year-on-year. The profit growth is primarily driven by improved gross margins, foreign exchange gains, and the reversal of credit impairment losses [1][4]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development and innovation, with significant investments in R&D and the application of large models across various sectors. This strategy has led to rapid growth in innovative business revenue, which is becoming a key growth engine for the company [2][3]. - The outlook for AI applications in smart sensing is promising, with various products expected to transition from the introduction phase to the growth phase post-2026 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to CNY 925.18 billion, CNY 990.15 billion, and CNY 1,054.98 billion, respectively. Net profit forecasts are adjusted to CNY 141.88 billion, CNY 152.01 billion, and CNY 160.92 billion, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.55, CNY 1.66, and CNY 1.76 per share [4][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same period are 20.64, 19.26, and 18.20, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][8].