Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-26 10:53Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Rapeseed System Industry Daily Report 2026 - 01 - 26 [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract): Rapeseed oil is 9345 yuan/ton (up 354), rapeseed meal is 2269 yuan/ton (up 34); ICE rapeseed is 651.8 CAD/ton (up 4.8), rapeseed is 5539 yuan/ton (down 2) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 90 yuan/ton (up 62), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 33 yuan/ton (up 10) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 297957 lots (up 36075), rapeseed meal is 968068 lots (down 46185) [2] - Net long positions of top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 8917 lots (up 11662), rapeseed meal is - 248949 lots (up 24735) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 625 sheets (down 500), rapeseed meal is 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9950 yuan/ton (up 200), average price is 10056.25 yuan/ton (up 200); spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton (up 30) [2] - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton (unchanged); oil - meal ratio is 3.87 (up 0.04) [2] - Basis of rapeseed oil main contract is 605 yuan/ton (down 154), basis of rapeseed meal main contract is 281 yuan/ton (down 4) [2] - Spot price of grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8710 yuan/ton (up 100); spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1240 yuan/ton (up 100) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton (up 100); spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 920 yuan/ton (up 100) [2] - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3120 yuan/ton (up 40); spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570 yuan/ton (up 10) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.27 million tons (up 3 million tons), annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Total rapeseed import volume for the month is 5.56 million tons (up 5.36 million tons), import cost of rapeseed is 7863.56 yuan/ton (up 77.73) [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons (unchanged), weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0% (unchanged) [2] - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is 22 million tons (up 5 million tons), import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 23.82 million tons (up 2.35 million tons) [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons (unchanged), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 25.25 million tons (down 2.15 million tons), rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 14.1 million tons (down 1.6 million tons) [2] - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.2 million tons (up 0.1 million tons), rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 27 million tons (up 1.3 million tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 (delivery volume) is 0.55 million tons (up 0.37 million tons), weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons (unchanged) [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly feed production is 3008.6 million tons (up 30.7 million tons), monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 5738 billion yuan (down 319 billion yuan) [2] - Monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons (up 60.6 million tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 17.76% (down 0.62%), implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal is 17.75% (down 0.63%) [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.14% (up 0.08%), 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 13.31% (up 0.05%) [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil is 14.76% (up 0.28%), implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil is 14.77% (up 0.29%) [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.95% (down 0.84%), 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.77% (down 0.44%) [2] Group 3: Industry News - On January 23 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher again, with a weekly increase of over 10 CAD/ton. The March rapeseed futures contract rose 4.50 CAD, settling at 651.70 CAD/ton [2] - There is a high expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting pressure on international soybean prices. However, US soybean export data has improved, and the US soybean crushing industry has remained strong to meet the growing demand for soybean oil in biofuels [2] Group 4: Core Views Rapeseed Meal - Globally and in Canada, the rapeseed supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which continues to restrain market prices. The uncertainty about the full implementation of the China - Canada trade agreement due to US pressure on Canada has pushed rapeseed - related products to strengthen [2] - After a continuous decline in the early stage, rapeseed meal has rebounded from its low level recently. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2] Rapeseed Oil - Currently, domestic oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price. The basis of rapeseed oil remains at a high level [2] - Affected by the US pressure on Canada and the US President's remarks, rapeseed oil has seen increased positions and rising prices. In the short term, fluctuations have intensified, and a bullish approach is recommended [2] Group 5: Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, and the implementation of the China - Canada trade agreement [2]