地缘扰动不断短期商品或震荡偏强：大宗商品周报2026年1月26日-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 2.08% last week, with precious metals leading the increase at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rising 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - The US PCE data rebounded slightly, cooling the interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index significantly corrected last week, and the easing of the Greenland conflict boosted market risk appetite. The uncertainty brought by the Iranian situation is beneficial to precious metals and energy - chemicals, and the short - term commodity market may fluctuate strongly [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward, but need to beware of post - overbought corrections; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly; black metals may fluctuate; energy prices may rebound but with limited space; the chemical industry may fluctuate strongly; and agricultural products may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Overall Market: The commodity market rose 2.08% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rose 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - Individual Varieties: The top - rising varieties were silver, PTA, and gold, with increases of 11.04%, 8.57%, and 7.74% respectively; the top - falling varieties were glass, live pigs, and iron ore, with decreases of 3.54%, 3.46%, and 2.09% respectively [2][7]. - Volatility: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with styrene, live pigs, and gold having relatively large fluctuations [2][7]. - Funds: The overall market scale increased last week, with only the black metal sector experiencing capital outflows. Gold and silver received capital inflows of 24.4 billion and 12.7 billion respectively [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - Precious Metals: The US dollar index dropped significantly, and geopolitical disturbances increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The sector continued to fluctuate upward. The low inventory of silver also promoted the silver price. In the short term, the upward trend of the sector is hard to reverse, but post - overbought corrections should be watched out for [2]. - Non - Ferrous Metals: The US dollar index was weak, risk - aversion sentiment was high, and domestic policies aimed to expand domestic demand. The supply - side contraction risk supported prices, and the sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - Black Metals: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Steel mill profits were poor, and the resumption of production was affected. Iron ore port inventory increased significantly, and the structural contradiction needed to be resolved. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - Energy: The US Treasury's new sanctions on Iran and the production suspension of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to force majeure, along with the cold wave in the US, led to a rise in natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil. Oil prices may rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to the inventory - accumulation pressure in Q1 [3]. - Chemical Industry: For polyester products, terminal demand declined, and there was an inventory - accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, but supply - contraction expectations and positive market sentiment may lead to short - term strong fluctuations. For building materials, PVC may see capacity reduction and possible export - grabbing, with an expected upward shift in the center of gravity; glass may see seasonal inventory accumulation but may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [4]. - Agricultural Products: The expectation of a South American bumper harvest is the main trading logic, but the slow progress of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest may increase the pressure on US soybeans and soybean meal. The improvement of China - Canada relations may impact domestic soybean - meal prices. The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the overall oilseeds and oils may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 7.5%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 29.5871 billion yuan, with a 4.42% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 82.85% [36]. - Other ETFs: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.48% return, the soybean - meal ETF had a 0.92% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a - 0.52% return, and the silver fund had a 6.72% return [36][38]. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 31.8614 billion yuan, with a 3.99% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 49.13% [36].