1月USDA上调全球玉米、小麦和大豆产量

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn, wheat, and soybean production forecasts for January 2026, indicating an increase in supply and a tightening of the global supply-demand gap for corn [7][36] - The report highlights that the domestic market is currently active due to the traditional peak selling season for corn, with strong price support expected [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 65.15 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 13.05 million tons [14] - Global corn consumption is projected at 1.3 billion tons, up 48.21 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.62 million tons [14] - The ending stock for global corn is estimated at 290.91 million tons, a decrease of 3.79 million tons from 2024/25, but an increase of 11.76 million tons month-on-month [14] - The corn stock-to-use ratio is 19.3%, down 1.16 percentage points from 2024/25 but up 0.75 percentage points month-on-month [14] Wheat - Global wheat production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, an increase of 41.36 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 4.36 million tons [36] - Global wheat consumption is projected at 823.91 million tons, up 13.05 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.94 million tons [36] - The ending stock for global wheat is estimated at 278.25 million tons, an increase of 18.25 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 3.38 million tons [36] - The wheat stock-to-use ratio is 26.7%, up 1.20 percentage points from 2024/25 and up 0.27 percentage points month-on-month [36] Soybeans - Global soybean production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 426 million tons, a decrease of 1.47 million tons from 2024/25, but with a month-on-month increase of 3.14 million tons [6] - Global soybean consumption is projected at 423 million tons, up 9.63 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.29 million tons [6] - The ending stock for global soybeans is estimated at 124 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 2.04 million tons [6] - The soybean stock-to-use ratio is 20.4%, down 0.26 percentage points from 2024/25 but up 0.30 percentage points month-on-month [6]