Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 129.6 points (previous value: 129.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.0 points. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds is 3.5% (previous value: 3.2%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 128.1 (previous value: 128.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales is 40.2 (previous value: 40.3), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.6 points, and the year - on - year decrease remains unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment is 121.9 (previous value: 121.9), with a week - on - week increase of 7.9 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged; the high - frequency index for exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 points, and the year - on - year decrease widens; the high - frequency index for consumption is 121.5 (previous value: 121.4), with a week - on - week increase of 3.6 points, and the year - on - year increase widens [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly - on - monthly CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly - on - monthly PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 164.3 (previous value: 164.2), with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged; the high - frequency transportation index is 135.1 (previous value: 134.7), with a week - on - week increase of 11.3 points, and the year - on - year increase widens; the high - frequency financing index is 248.4 (previous value: 247.8), with a week - on - week increase of 31.2 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 129.6 points (previous value: 129.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.0 points. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds is 3.5% (previous value: 3.2%) [1][9]. 2. Production: Semi - tire Operating Rate Increases - The industrial production high - frequency index is 128.1 (previous value: 128.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The semi - tire operating rate is 74.6% (previous value: 73.4%) [1][9][13]. 3. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Drops Slightly - The high - frequency index for commercial housing sales is 40.2 (previous value: 40.3), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.6 points. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 16.6 square meters (previous value: 18.5 square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 1.6% (previous value: 1.4%) [1][9][26]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Declines - The high - frequency index for infrastructure investment is 121.9 (previous value: 121.9), with a week - on - week increase of 7.9 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The asphalt operating rate is 26.8% (previous value: 27.2%) [1][9][41]. 5. Exports: RJ/CRB Index Rises - The high - frequency index for exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 points, and the year - on - year decrease widens. The RJ/CRB index is 309.1 points (previous value: 304.3 points) [1][9][45]. 6. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Drops - The high - frequency index for consumption is 121.5 (previous value: 121.4), with a week - on - week increase of 3.6 points, and the year - on - year increase widens. The daily average movie box office is 4142.0 million yuan (previous value: 4577.7 million yuan) [1][9][54]. 7. CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index Rebounds - The monthly - on - monthly CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.1%). The average wholesale price of pork is 18.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.0 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables is 5.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.5 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.9 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.7 yuan/kg) [1][60][9]. 8. PPI: Raw Material Prices Drop Slightly - The monthly - on - monthly PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%). The ex - warehouse price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 687.6 yuan/ton (previous value: 699.6 yuan/ton), the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64.8 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 64.8 US dollars/barrel), the spot settlement price of LME copper is 12901.9 US dollars/ton (previous value: 13232.0 US dollars/ton), and the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 3137.6 US dollars/ton (previous value: 3184.3 US dollars/ton) [1][67][9]. 9. Transportation: Highway Logistics Index Rises - The high - frequency transportation index is 135.1 (previous value: 134.7), with a week - on - week increase of 11.3 points, and the year - on - year increase widens. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 3847.3 million person - times (previous value: 3916.1 million person - times), the highway logistics freight rate index is 1066.4 points (previous value: 1052.3 points), and the number of domestic flights is 12981.0 flights (previous value: 12736.9 flights) [2][80][10]. 10. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Drops Slightly - The high - frequency inventory index is 164.3 (previous value: 164.2), with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The soda ash inventory is 153.3 tons (previous value: 157.0 tons) [2][89][10]. 11. Financing: Local Government Bonds and Credit Bonds Financing Increases - The high - frequency financing index is 248.4 (previous value: 247.8), with a week - on - week increase of 31.2 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local government bonds is 2031.6 billion yuan (previous value: 655.7 billion yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 1434.9 billion yuan (previous value: 399.9 billion yuan) [2][100][10].
基本面高频数据跟踪：春节错位效应开始影响高频数据同比
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-01-26 10:57