黑色产业链周报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Overall Black Market - The black market is expected to experience low - level consolidation. The market has weak drivers, and weak demand exerts pressure on prices. The impact of winter storage on prices has significantly decreased, and the macro - market provides no trend guidance [12]. 2.2 Coal and Coke - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month - on - month, and the downstream replenishment is nearing completion. The upward drive for coal prices is weak. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [14]. 2.3 Ferroalloys - Currently, the macro sentiment has weakened, and the market sentiment is cautious. The ferroalloys continue to have a supply - demand pattern with a slight surplus. The high inventory pressure of ferromanganese and the increasing inventory pressure of ferrosilicon suppress alloy prices. The cost support for ferromanganese has weakened, while that for ferrosilicon is still acceptable. Overall, the alloy fundamentals lack effective drivers, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: From January 16th to January 23rd, the futures prices of most varieties, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., decreased. The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and ferromanganese also decreased. The futures price of coke increased slightly, and the spot price remained unchanged. The spot price of coking coal increased, while the futures price decreased. The futures price of ferrosilicon increased, and the spot price also increased slightly. The price of scrap steel decreased slightly [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The market is in the winter storage period, but traders' willingness to store is low. The market has weak drivers and weak demand, and prices will be in a low - level consolidation [12]. - Coal and Coke: The supply is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is nearing completion. The upward drive for prices is weak, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [14]. - Ferroalloys: The supply - demand pattern is slightly in surplus, inventory pressure is high, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - Rebar: Last week, the production was 199.55 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.25 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.42 tons. The apparent demand was 185.52 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.82 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68.61 tons. The total inventory was 452.10 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 14.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.11 tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing showed different changes [20][28][42]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Last week, the production was 305.41 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.95 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.23 tons. The apparent demand was 309.96 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.20 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.40 tons. The total inventory was 357.78 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.55 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.27 tons. The basis in Shanghai showed different changes [33][39][49]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Inventory: The total coke inventory last week was 939.16 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.99 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 71.34 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 2867.88 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 26.38 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 399.77 tons [59][68]. - Production and Utilization Rate: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 66 yuan last week. The capacity utilization rate was 72.3%, and the daily coke output was 63.3 tons. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.0 tons, and the daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons [77][78]. - Price Ratio and Basis: The price ratios of coke to coking coal in different months showed different changes. The basis of coke and coking coal in different months also showed different trends [81][84][88]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Spot Price: On January 23rd, the price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased, the price of ferromanganese decreased, and the price of ferrosilicon increased [101]. - Inventory: On January 23rd, the total port inventory of manganese ore increased. The inventory of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises increased [104][114]. - Production and Demand: The production of ferromanganese increased slightly, while the production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly. The demand for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased slightly last week [107][109][111].