【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean spot market price shows a stable and slightly stronger trend, and it is estimated to continue the volatile trend [1] - The bullish sentiment in the corn market continues to heat up, and the short - term upward trend is expected to slow down. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range shock before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a large pullback [1] - The egg price has soared, and the egg - laying chicken farming industry has shown signs of profit repair. There is no obvious driving force at present, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to rise continuously. The far - month prices need to pay attention to the capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of reproductive sows [3] Summary by Related Content Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price in the Northeast production area runs stably, and the grass - roots farmers' asking prices remain stable. Most trading entities purchase casually and consume inventory to maintain old customers. Multi - platform soybean auctions attract attention, and the overall transaction is good. There is a restocking demand before the Spring Festival, but trading entities have difficulty raising prices to sell [1] Corn - The bullish sentiment in the corn market continues to heat up, and the futures and spot prices rise synchronously. As the Spring Festival approaches, the traditional grain - selling window narrows, the grass - roots price - holding and selling - reluctance sentiment weakens, the downstream pre - festival stocking progresses orderly, and some enterprises show a make - up increase. However, with the adjustment of the policy grain source release rules, the transaction volume increases significantly, and the downstream enterprises' willingness to raise prices weakens. The short - term upward trend is expected to slow down [1] Egg - The recent sharp rise in egg prices indicates that the egg - laying chicken farming industry is gradually getting out of the trough and entering a key turning point for profit repair. After the price rebound, the decision on culling old chickens is hesitant, and the supply is balanced by the decrease in new additions and the increase in delayed culling. There is a small decline after the price rush, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to the marginal improvement in the inventory compared with the second half of last year [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. The pig de - capacity is still ongoing, and it is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to rise continuously. The far - month prices need to pay attention to the capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of reproductive sows [2][3]