【冠通期货研究报告】纯碱日报：短期震荡-20260126

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soda ash industry is short - term shock [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and with new capacity gradually coming on stream, the overall output is increasing. There is still an expectation of cold repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, and the rigid demand for soda ash may further weaken. Although the anti - involution news last week strengthened market sentiment and the market rebounded, under the expectation of high long - term supply of soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction continues to intensify. High inventory pressure limits the price rebound space. The short - term market price may fluctuate, but it will return to the weak fundamental situation after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Group 3: Market Conditions Review - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened lower and moved higher, with an intraday shock - strengthening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks contracted, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume increased by 196,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,307 lots. The intraday high was 1,210, the low was 1,183, and the closing price was 1,205, up 17 yuan/ton or 1.43% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: The spot market showed a light and stable shock. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and the comprehensive supply was adjusted at a high level. Downstream demand was average, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and low - price rigid - demand replenishment was maintained [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250, and the basis was 45 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.46%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,700 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from last week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2] - Inventory: As of January 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.541 million tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 1.30% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 838,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,800 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 702,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons [2] - Demand: The soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%; the overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and it mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [2] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. During the week, the raw material salt price was stable, the thermal coal price fluctuated downward, and the cost decreased slightly [3]