芳烃日报：上行势头放缓，谨防回调风险-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall sentiment is cautiously bullish, suggesting waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback [5] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of aromatics has slowed, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a pullback. Although the supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved and port inventories have started to decline from a high level, due to the high price increase of styrene and pure benzene and subsequent partial device restarts, along with high pure benzene inventories, caution is advised [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of the week ending January 22, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 349,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons or 1.72%. The plant capacity utilization rate was 69.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23%. Domestic styrene plants were generally stable, but overall losses exceeded increments, leading to a decline in production [1] - As of the week ending January 22, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.71%, a week - on - week increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The PS capacity utilization rate was 57.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. Although some devices resumed or restarted, others reduced production lines. The industry supply was temporarily stable, but market shipments were average, and inventories started to rise [1] - The ABS capacity utilization rate was 66.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 3%. Manufacturers' supply was still tight, and they mainly controlled shipments. After the holiday, market inquiries and transactions increased, and prices rebounded. The UPR capacity utilization rate was 38%, a week - on - week decrease of 1%, and the butadiene - styrene rubber operation rate was 82.92%, remaining stable week - on - week [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - A large - scale winter storm has hit many parts of the United States, with 24 states and Washington, D.C. declaring a state of emergency, and 7 deaths reported due to the cold weather [3] - The US "Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East, and Iran has warned the US that it will attack US aircraft carriers if subjected to military strikes [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene and styrene fluctuated within the day, and their upward momentum slowed. The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and port inventories have started to decline from a high level [5]