鸡蛋产业周报：产能去化延缓-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current contradiction in the egg market lies in the intense game between the "strong reality" driven by Spring Festival stocking and the "weak expectation" of post - festival production capacity and demand. The short - term unsustainable stocking affects the long - term restoration of the supply - demand balance [2]. - In the short term, the egg price will show a downward trend as the demand - driving effect weakens during the late stage of pre - festival stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100 [10]. - In the long term, the improvement of short - term profitability delays the progress of egg - laying hen production capacity reduction. Market expectations are that festival stocking in the second and third quarters will boost demand. The increase in chick prices stimulates farmers' replenishment willingness, which may affect egg production 4 - 5 months later [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The "strong reality" in the egg spot market is driven by pre - Spring Festival stocking, with fast market sales, low inventory, and rising prices, which improves the profitability of the breeding sector. However, this also leads to concerns about future egg supply as farmers are less willing to cull hens and more willing to replenish chicks [2]. - The near - term trading logic is that pre - festival stocking drives up the spot price of eggs, but as the Spring Festival approaches, food processing plants have basically completed restocking, and subsequent demand is expected to be pessimistic [4]. - The far - term trading logic involves factors such as the delay of production capacity reduction, expected improvement in demand during festivals, and the impact of chick replenishment on future egg production [12]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - Trend Judgment: The current stage is the late stage of pre - festival stocking, with weakening demand - driving effect and egg price support. The egg price will show a downward trend in the short term [10]. - Price Range: The egg price will fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100. - Unilateral Strategy: Enter the market with a light position when the price drops to around 2900 and take profits when it reaches around 3100 [10]. - Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the basis strategy [11]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - Egg Price Range Forecast: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.35% and a historical percentile of 24.75% over three years [13]. - Risk Management Strategy Suggestions: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting egg futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract selections, trading directions, recommended proportions, and suggested entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive Information: In December, the national inventory of laying hens continued to decline, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. The increase in the number of old hens slaughtered and the decrease in the number of newly - opened laying hens led to a reduction in egg supply in January. In January, the prices of corn and soybean meal, the main feed raw materials, increased, driving up the feed price. The increase in egg prices far exceeded the increase in costs, resulting in profitable egg - laying hen breeding [14]. - Negative Information: In February, as food processing enterprises and schools go on holiday, market demand will gradually weaken. Although the supply of newly - opened laying hens in January may decrease, the high inventory of laying hens is still supported by farmers' reluctance to sell, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the egg market in February. The average egg price is expected to drop by 0.90 - 1.00 yuan per catty [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation This week, the opening price of the main egg 03 contract was 3072 yuan per 500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3046 yuan per 500KG at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.85%. The position was 271,000 contracts, an increase of 7784 contracts compared with last week [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - Spread Structure: The overall egg spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 2 spread shows a back structure, it is a normal seasonal pattern, and the overall structure is contango [18]. - Basis Structure: As the number of culled hens increases, the spot market is strong, the 01 basis expands significantly, and the far - month basis also strengthens [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the profit of egg - laying hen breeding is gradually recovering, approaching the cost line. The seasonality is still the lowest in the past five years, and farmers have an incentive to cull hens. This week, the breeding profit remains in a loss state but is about to turn a profit. Feed prices have rebounded, and the breeding cost has increased. If the current breeding profit continues to be in a loss state, farmers' motivation to recover losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of hens [24]. 3.5 This Week's Supply and Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - Laying Hen Inventory: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The proportion of main - producing laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve laying hens and hens to be slaughtered decreased. The proportion of laying hens over 450 days old decreased to 8.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%; the proportion of main - producing laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 79.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%; the proportion of reserve laying hens under 120 days old decreased to 12.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.22%. The egg - laying rate of laying hens remained flat month - on - month [27]. - Chick Situation: In December, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales of commercial - generation chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information were about 39.59 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The improvement in egg - laying hen breeding profitability, the strong rise in egg and old - hen prices, and the turn to profit in breeding (this week's average weekly egg profit was about 0.15 yuan) boosted farmers' confidence in replenishing chicks. The chick orders of breeding chicken enterprises are generally scheduled until the end of February and early March, and some are scheduled until mid - March [29][32]. - Culled Hen Situation: There is a divergence between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data on culled hens. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease in culled hens, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase in culled hens this month, and the market's divergence on the data is increasing [30]. 3.5.2 Consumption Situation The sales volume of eggs in the main sales areas decreased, and the arrival volume of eggs at the Guangdong wholesale market decreased [33]. 3.5.3 Inventory Situation This week, the inventory in the production and circulation links is still at a low level in recent years, but with the start of restocking, it increased week - on - week by 0.42 days and 0.5 days respectively [35].